832
ACUS02 KWNS 060600
SWODY2
SPC AC 060558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday from the
Mid-South northeastward into the Ohio Valley. A few tornadoes, large
to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible.

...Synopsis...
A large upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains should
slowly occlude on Tuesday. A convectively augmented mid-level
shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the day. The primary
surface low over ND should weaken/occlude through the day, while a
separate, weak low is forecast to develop northeastward across the
Upper Midwest in tandem with the shortwave trough. A cold front will
sweep eastward across the Midwest/OH Valley through the day before
decelerating, while a warm front simultaneously lifts northward
across the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes.

...Mid-South/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley...
There is relatively high confidence that a band of strong to severe
convection will be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday
morning over parts of the Midwest/mid MS Valley. This convection
will probably weaken though the morning as it encounters a less
unstable airmass into the OH Valley. But, it may still pose some
threat for damaging winds. With somewhat steepened mid-level lapse
rates overspreading a moist low-level airmass, moderate to locally
strong instability should develop with diurnal heating across much
of the warm sector in the OH/TN Valleys.

The effect of the early-day convection complicates the potential for
a greater severe threat. Still, eventual regeneration along the
morning convection`s outflow and/or leading edge seems probable into
Tuesday afternoon. Strengthening mid-level flow on the nose of an
enhanced (50-70 kt) mid-level jet will aid in the development of
strong deep-layer shear, which will support organized
updrafts/severe convection. Overall mode may be somewhat messy, with
a mix of supercells and multicell clusters possible. Regardless, any
persistent supercells should be capable of producing large to very
large hail. Low-level shear associated with a 25-35 kt
south-southwesterly low-level jet appears sufficient to support
updraft rotation and a threat for a few tornadoes, mainly across the
OH Valley. If thunderstorms can congeal into one or more clusters,
then a greater threat for severe/damaging winds would be realized.
This convection should spread into the western parts of the central
Appalachians Tuesday evening before eventually weakening.

...Upper Midwest...
Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper trough should
foster the development of weak instability through Tuesday
afternoon. Strong large-scale ascent will likely encourage the
development of low-topped thunderstorms across parts of WI and
vicinity. Isolated hail and gusty winds may occur with the more
robust cores, and a brief tornado or two also appears possible.

...Virginia/North Carolina...
Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms may develop
Tuesday afternoon across parts of VA/NC, generally along/east of a
weak surface lee trough. Sufficient forecast instability and shear
should be present to support some threat for hail and strong winds
with any thunderstorms that form. The overall severe threat is
expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Deep South...
Weaker forcing with southward extent across the lower MS Valley/Deep
South suggests a more conditional severe threat compared to
locations farther north. But, at least isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday afternoon/evening, especially
along a weak surface trough extending into parts of MS/AL.

...Central Texas...
A highly conditional threat for thunderstorms is apparent across
parts of central TX Tuesday afternoon along/near a low-level
moisture gradient/sharpening dryline. While large-scale ascent aloft
appears negligible, if any thunderstorms can form and persist, they
could become severe given a strongly unstable airmass. This scenario
appears too uncertain to add low severe probabilities at this time.

..Gleason.. 05/06/2024

$$