Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 152119
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
419 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly clear skies today and tomorrow with above normal
  temperatures

- A dip in temperatures expected Monday and Tuesday

- Above normal temperatures are expected to return during the
  middle of the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Currently, the pattern at the mid to upper levels over CONUS shows a
closed low pressure system over Southern California with the jet
rounding the base of the system. There is some shortwave ridging to
the southwest of our region with with westerly mid to upper level
flow over the region. There is shortwave troughing well to the
northwest of the region over the Great Lakes. This troughing has
ample jet support rounding the base.

Tonight, skies will remain relatively clear as we remain upstream of
a ridge. Low temperatures tonight are forecasted to reach the low
40s with nearly ideal radiational cooling due to weak winds and
clear skies. As the shortwave trough over Ontario continues to move
to the east, another shortwave trough with its associated surface
low pushes through the area. This trough dips further south than the
first shortwave just north of the Great Lakes. With the passage of
this shortwave, the associated frontal boundary at the surface is
expected to drop low temperatures on Saturday into the mid 30s. With
the strengthened pressure gradient, winds may occasionally gust to
the mid 20s during the day with diurnal mixing. For Sunday,
continued northwesterly winds are expected to continue to drop
temperatures with highs in the low 50s and lows in the mid 20s.

Overnight Monday, there is mid-level troughing that passes over the
region keeping winds steady out of the north. Continued cold air
advection will lead to consistent low temperatures in the mid to
high 30s for Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, a rex block pattern
will have formed to the west of the region over the Great Plains.
With the position of the low pressure to our southwest, winds will
begin to shift to the southwest late Wednesday starting a warming
trend and increasing moisture which could lead to the return of
precip chances for the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds
will be light and come from the north. They will then shift to
a westerly direction overnight into Saturday. Winds will begin
to gust to the low 20s tomorrow with diurnal mixing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier


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