Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 141143
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Area of strong to severe thunderstorms through sunrise from
  eastern Kansas into central Missouri. Hail to up to half
  dollars and 60 mph wind gusts are the greatest concern. A
  Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 6 AM.

- 30 to 50% chance for thunderstorms into central Missouri mid
  to late afternoon and evening. There is a Slight (10 to 15%)
  Risk of severe storms in central Missouri. Hail up to golf
  ball size and 60 mph wind gusts are the primary concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Quick discussion this morning as active weather continues across the
forecast area.

Through midnight, thunderstorms continue along and just north of the
warm front across northeastern Kansas into central Missouri,
generally from Leavenworth to Moberly, MO. This activity continues
to maintain with modest balance and redevelopment from the cold
pools they`ve laid down, available instability, and support from the
LLJ. Reports of quarter to a little larger hail continues to be
reported. This activity will continue to persist through the
morning, slowly moving east. Per 05Z surface analysis, the warm
front is stalled just near or south of the Missouri River. To the
west, a mid-level short wave trough continues to lift east-northeast
out of far southwest Kansas, providing a source of large scale
ascent as it continues to advance eastward this morning. At the
surface, the surface trough remains focused from near Wichita into
east central Kansas. Ahead, a decent warm sector persists, with
surface dew points in the mid to upper 50s as far north as the KC
Metro. Through 1230 AM, new development has commenced along the
surface trough, supported by a combo of the short wave and surface
trough. Most CAMs caught on to this earlier and persist this
activity across eastern Kansas into western Missouri through early
this morning. As we get to 1 AM and 2 AM, expect some more coverage
along this boundary, building eastward through the early morning
hours. The NAMnest continues to be the most bullish of guidance,
which is par for the course, but HRRR isn`t too different. In
reality, development and maintenance will be highly dependent on
cold pool development and influence on storm motions, but given a
narrow ribbon of MLCAPE 1000 to 1500 J/Kg and a 40 to 50 kt LLJ,
feel confident that storms will develop somewhere near the surface
boundary and persist to the east through the early morning, before
dissipating toward sunrise as they move into a less favorable
environment. Generally, hail will be the primary concern, up to half
dollar size, perhaps a touch larger with any more robust updraft.
The tornado risk will be low but not zero, most soundings show
rather elevated instability and surface winds are not backed ahead
of the boundary enhancing low level helicity.

Through the morning, with much of the area rather worked over, an
EML will develop again over the warm sector, with a modest inversion
aloft. The surface trough will be outstretched from southeast Kansas
into mid-Missouri. Through mid-afternoon, ample instability will
develop ahead of the boundary, with forecast soundings suggesting a
break down of the inversion through the late afternoon. Convection
will commence around 4 to 7 PM across central Missouri and quickly
move eastward through 9 to 10 PM. Hail will be the primary concern,
up to half dollar size with the strongest updrafts. Generally agree
with SPC keeping the Slight Risk in central Missouri.

The Friday into the weekend forecast remains relatively the same as
the past few forecast packages. A surface ridge settles in through
Saturday ahead of a lumbering southwest H500 trough. Cooler, more
seasonable temperatures arrive early next week as a sizable cold
front swings through Sunday night, influencing our weather through
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Convection continues to move across central Missouri early this
morning. Activity should remain south of the terminals but can
expect VCTS for IXD for couple hours in the early morning. Expect
surface winds to slowly veer through the day to the north as a
cold front settles south this afternoon and evening. Expect lower
CIGS and potential (10-20%) for slightly reduced visibilities
in early morning from 14z to 16z. Should clear in the through
the day with any potential for shower or thunderstorms activity
to remain well southeast of the terminals. Then will see will
see lowering CIGS and visibilities for Friday morning around
10z-14z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...MAK


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