581
FXUS64 KEPZ 090631
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1231 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Warm and breezy conditions are expected through much of the next
seven days. A boundary will switch winds in the morning from the
east, but winds return from the west by afternoon. On Saturday,
eastern areas, especially the Sacramento Mountains, will have a
chance for some thunderstorms. Dry and warm conditions return
Sunday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Long wave UL trough will continue to cover the Western CONUS for
the next few days. We expect another breezy to windy afternoon
today, but high pressure will move south through the Plains
inhibiting lee troughing for Thursday. Winds will not be as
breezy, which will alleviate fire concerns. The air mass
associated with the high pressure looks to push through much of
the CWA to at least the Continental Divide during the overnight
hours into Friday morning. This moisture will be short-lived and
shallow, so it retreats back to the east during the afternoon
hours. A closed low is expected to organize toward Las Vegas, NV,
which will help provide some dynamics to where moisture remains,
which may be far east Hudspeth Co and the Sacramento Mountains,
where there are slight POPs late evening and overnight. A better
surge is expected Friday night into Saturday, but the air mass
will again retreat east. Guidance shows it may not retreat as far,
so there is a bit better chance of precip for the Sacs and mainly
Hudspeth County. For areas west of this boundary, temperatures
will be seasonal to slightly above seasonal.

UL low swings through to our north on Sunday, which will firmly
displace the moisture to our east, placing us in the dry slot. The
track of the low will be far enough for modest precip chances in
our mountains, but that will be about all. Elsewhere, warm and
breezy to low-end windy conditions will bring another day of
elevated to near- critical fire danger. This UL low clears out
Sunday night, leaving NM and Far W. TX at the base of a s/w ridge
in its wake. We will still be at the northern edge of the
subtropical jet, which will be enough to bring us breezy winds in
the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Low end west
breezes will continue tonight but will increase to around 10-20G20-
30KT tomorrow afternoon. SKC will continue through 00Z tomorrow but
high clouds will seep northward into the evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Fire concerns decrease after this afternoon. Thursday will remain
very dry with min RH values near 10 and poor recoveries in the
morning. Nevertheless, winds will be lighter, topping out around
10 to 15 MPH. Venting will be excellent. Starting Thursday night
into Friday morning, a boundary will move east to west bringing
with it an increase in moisture. Latest guidance shows it reaching
the Continental Divide by morning, but may extend to the AZ
border. Regardless, the air mass will mainly improve overnight
recoveries as it will shift back to the east in the afternoon.
Only far eastern zones may see improvements in afternoon
recoveries. The airmass pushes west again overnight Friday into
Saturday, but may not retreat as far east. Eastern areas have a
chance for a shower and thunderstorm. Dry air completely sweeps
through the area on Sunday along with some increase in winds. At
this time though it appears winds will fall short of any critical
thresholds topping out around 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  59  87  63  87 /   0   0  10  10
Sierra Blanca            54  79  58  84 /   0   0  10  20
Las Cruces               53  87  56  87 /   0   0  10  10
Alamogordo               50  82  55  84 /   0   0  10  20
Cloudcroft               38  59  41  61 /   0  10  20  40
Truth or Consequences    51  82  54  83 /   0   0  10   0
Silver City              45  77  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   47  86  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                47  85  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       58  85  60  87 /   0   0  10  10
Dell City                50  81  55  83 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Hancock             53  89  58  91 /   0   0  10  20
Loma Linda               53  77  55  80 /   0   0  10  20
Fabens                   55  88  59  90 /   0   0  10  10
Santa Teresa             51  84  55  86 /   0   0  10  10
White Sands HQ           57  84  61  85 /   0   0  10  10
Jornada Range            48  84  52  84 /   0   0  10  10
Hatch                    47  87  52  87 /   0   0  10   0
Columbus                 52  87  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                52  81  57  84 /   0   0  10  20
Mayhill                  41  67  44  71 /   0   0  10  40
Mescalero                41  70  45  71 /   0  10  20  40
Timberon                 40  68  43  70 /   0   0  10  30
Winston                  43  76  46  76 /   0   0  10  10
Hillsboro                46  82  50  82 /   0   0  10   0
Spaceport                45  83  50  83 /   0   0  10  10
Lake Roberts             41  78  44  77 /   0   0  10   0
Hurley                   42  80  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    45  84  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               45  79  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  46  79  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   48  86  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  49  86  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           48  87  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               48  80  50  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird