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000
FXUS64 KEWX 210428
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1128 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
2 THSD TO 3 THSD SCT...WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 25 THSD FT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME CIGS OF 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN TO OVC VCNTY OF
KAUS TO KSAT AND KSSF AROUND AND AFTER 06Z...SPREADING WEST TO
VCNTY OF KDRT AROUND OR AFTER 09Z...WHERE CIGS NEAR 2 THSD FT
BKN TO OVC ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA NORTH OF KAUS
WILL MOVE EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER 15Z TUESDAY...CIGS OF 3 THSD BKN ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME 5 THSD TO 10 THSD SCT...WITH CIGS ABOVE 25 THSD
FT AFTER 17Z. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY. MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A DISTURBANCE AND STORM SYSTEM MOVES
FROM WEST TEXAS TUESDAY TO OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...
LOWER CLOUD CIGS OF 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN ARE EXPECTED FROM
VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT AND KSSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

UPDATE...
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND THE TORNADO
WATCH EARLIER ISSUED FOR KERR...GILLESPIE...LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELED. A FEW SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
HILL COUNTRY THROUGH 2 OR 3 AM TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
5 THSD TO 10 THSD SCT...WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 25 THSD FT
IS EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR CARRIZO SPRINGS TO
BURNET. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME SEVERE OVER BURNET...LLANO...GILLESPIE AND KERR COUNTIES...
WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 PM. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE CIGS TO DEVELOP FROM KAUS TO KSAT
AND KSSF AROUND AND AFTER 03Z...AT 1500 TO 3000 FT BKN...BECOMING
CIGS 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN TO OVC AFTER 06Z...WITH HIGHER LOW CLOUD
LAYERS AROUND 2500 TO 5000 FT. THESE LOWER CLOUD CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD WEST TOWARD KDRT AROUND OR AFTER 09Z...AT 1 THSD TO 2
THSD BKN TO OVC. AFTER 15Z TUESDAY...CIGS OF 3 THSD BKN ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME 5 THSD TO 10 THSD SCT...WITH CIGS ABOVE 25 THSD
FT AFTER 17Z. MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A DISTURBANCE AND STORM SYSTEM
MOVES FROM WEST TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL CAUSE A CHANCE OF
SHRA AND TSRA FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER SWRN TX THIS
AFTERNOON. OUR NORTHERN CWA WILL BE ON THE TAIL END OF THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION WITH A TORNADO WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT UNTIL
10 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE NW HILL COUNTRY. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS OF
20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...HOWEVER ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL BE STRONG-SEVERE. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DECREASE LATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND A RETREATING DRY LINE.
OTHERWISE A MORE POTENT SYSTEM REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS MORE UPPER AIR DYNAMICS COMES
INTO PLAY WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT. MODELS SHOW MORE ORGANIZED SUSTAINED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WITH HEATING IN NORTH/CENTRAL TX TUESDAY AFTERNOON...DROPPING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NRN CWA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
POSSIBLE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST INDICATED BY BOTH
THE NAM/GFS. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN/TAPER OFF IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER AIR TROUGH EXITS THE
CWA.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES WED MORNING
WITH REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE DRIER MID LEVEL FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO WEST TX. WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT OF MEXICO INTO WEST TX NEXT WEEKEND...
HOWEVER HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST FOR NOW. CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  93  72  92  71 /  10  40  40  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  92  69  91  70 /  10  40  40  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     69  94  69  93  70 /  10  40  40  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  90  68  90  69 /  30  50  50  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76 100  74  99  76 /  20  20  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  89  70  90  69 /  20  50  50  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  96  72  95  71 /  10  30  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  71  92  71 /  10  40  40  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  92  75  91  74 /  10  30  30  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  94  72  92  72 /  10  40  40  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  94  73  93  71 /  10  30  30  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08/05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17/01