National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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FXUS64 KEWX 152337 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
CIGS AND VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS
ALL LOCAL TERMINALS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM WEST TEXAS AND ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND THE WESTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
MOST AREAS WITH VFR RETURNING AT OR AFTER 17Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 TO 9 KNOTS
AND UP TO 14 KNOTS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS REMAINS THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY DEVELOPING CU FIELD WITH SOME SMALL...LOW
AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING EAST INTO
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. IN IT/S WAKE...A REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. IN ADDITION...A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS ALONG WITH A WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT REMAINS INTACT
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT...
BUT GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND THE OUTPUT FROM THE
LATEST HI-RES MODELS...WE WILL OPT TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AND EXTEND IT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE NMM MODEL IS PARTICULARLY
AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS FOR CONVECTION TO FLARE UP OVERNIGHT...THIS PARTICULAR
MODEL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

A MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS AND BECOMES ORIENTED FROM SW
TO NE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND WE HAVE HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO
CUERO LINE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
ACROSS TEXAS...LIKELY ALLOWING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE
REGION. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SORT OF TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. FOR NOW...WE/LL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. THIS
WAVE COULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO OFFER MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
CHANCES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  95  75  96  74 /  20  20  -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  95  74  95  73 /  20  20  -    0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  93  73  94  72 /  40  20  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  92  74  93  73 /  30  20  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  93  76  96  76 /  60  10  -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  74  95  73 /  20  20  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  93  74  95  73 /  60  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  93  73 /  30  20  -    0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  95  76  94  76 /  20  20  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  92  75  93  74 /  60  20  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  92  74  93  73 /  60  20  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BEXAR...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
