Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 241944
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
244 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Surface observations show plenty of low clouds remain in place,
while GOES satellite imagery shows a broken to overcast deck of high
level clouds moving in from the west. Early afternoon temperatures
still remain on the cool side over the higher terrain of the
southern Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country, with upper 50s to
lower 60s noted on the latest observations. Elsewhere, temperatures
are generally in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Gusty southeast winds are
in place across all areas.

Winds will remain gusty through the early evening hours as total
cloud cover remains fairly thick. Gusts may tend to ease during the
overnight hours as mixing decreases. However, sustained winds will
generally remain in the 10-15 mph range overnight. For the late
evening hours, we still expect convection to initially develop over
west central Texas along the dryline. As the dryline pushes eastward
overnight it will eventually be overtaken by a Pacific cold front.
The hi-res models agree in showing that convection continues to
develop and move into portions of the Hill Country and southern
Edwards Plateau around Midnight. While the instability will be
marginal, the shear will be more than adequate for a few strong to
severe storms over this region. The Pacific front continues to
advance eastward through the Hill Country and eventually the I-35
corridor during the morning hours. The concern for severe weather in
this region is a little lower as models continue to show the
stronger forcing for ascent over north Texas. The latest outlook
from SPC has shifted the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) a little
farther east and now includes areas generally along and north of a
Del Rio to San Marcos to Lexington line. A small portion of far
northwestern Llano county has also been clipped by the Slight Risk
(level 2 of 5). Hail is the main concern, with perhaps an isolated
damaging wind gust possible as well. As the line moves eastward
tomorrow morning, a gradual weakening is anticipated. Rain chances
will end around Noon, with attention then focused on gusty west
winds behind the Pacific front spreading into the region.

Rapid clearing behind the front and daytime heating will allow for
increased mixing of higher momentum air down to the surface
tomorrow. HREF probabilities for sustained winds above 25 mph are
quite healthy across the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande plains
and western Hill Country tomorrow. Given the agreement noted in the
hi-res models and MOS guidance, we have issued a Wind Advisory for
the above mentioned areas from 11 AM until 7 PM Monday. Sustained
west winds of 25 to 35 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH are forecast. Some
patchy blowing dust can`t be completely ruled out across Val Verde
county. Despite the passage of the Pacific front, most areas will
still manage to warm into the lower 70s to mid 80s with downslope
flow and sunshine. Winds will begin to ease after sunset, but should
remain occasionally gusty through the late evening. Overnight lows
will drop into the lower 40s to lower 50s Monday night under mostly
clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A relatively quiet and seasonal long-term period is forecast, with
Fire Weather being the primary concern. A broad upper trough will be
in place across much of the central and western CONUS Tuesday
morning, with W to N winds continuing at the surface. Thus, slightly
below normal high temperatures are forecast, especially over eastern
areas. Rather dry air will be in place in the afternoon, as RH falls
into the teens for most areas west of US- 281. Winds in portions of
this region will be sufficient for elevated to locally near-critical
fire weather (10-20 mph) but are not expected to get to Critical
thresholds at this time.

Similar temperatures are forecast on Wednesday. As the base of the
trough swings through, there will be a low chance for showers and a
thunderstorm or two for mainly northern areas, but forcing is weak
and moisture is marginal so there likely won`t be much in terms of
measurable precipitation. Continued near-critical fire weather
concerns are forecast out over the southern Edwards Plateau and into
portions of the Rio Grande Plains and western Hill Country where
breezy afternoon winds will overlap with RH in the teens. Ridging
will then build overhead with southerly to southeasterly flow
bringing gradual moisture return and a warm-up (especially in terms
of morning low temps) through the weekend. No clear signs for any
precipitation Wednesday night through Sunday, but fire weather
concerns will abate Friday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Cigs are beginning to rise, but will keep MVFR in place for another
hour based on observational trends. In addition, south to southeast
winds are on the increase and gusty conditions are in store for all
TAF sites through this afternoon. MVFR cigs should return back to
the I-35 corridor around 02Z as winds may tend to become a little
less gusty with the onset of boundary layer cooling. Cigs look to
stay east of DRT, so we will keep the forecast VFR overnight.
Attention will then turn to the possibility of some light showers
developing in advance of a dryline and eventually a Pacific front.
For now will only go with VCSH along I-35 beginning 04-06Z. As the
dryline mixes eastward and is overtaken by the Pac front, convection
is expected to move into the Hill Country around Midnight. Hi-res
models continue to show a fairly narrow time window when convection
will move across the I-35 terminals and we have tried to hone in the
timing on the latest forecast. We will continue to mention PROB30
groups, but could certainly need a TEMPO group at AUS and possibly
SAT and SSF. Once the convection moves east of the I-35 terminals by
mid-morning, winds will shift to the northwest and eventually west.
Gusty west winds are expected by late morning at the I-35 sites, with
DRT winds showing up 2-3 hours earlier.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Surface observations show southeast flow and moisture remain intact
across all areas. Obs are rather sparse across the Rio Grande and
adjacent lower Trans Pecos, but so far the moisture is backed up
across most of Terrell county. The models still suggest the dryline
may briefly mix eastward into far western Val Verde county late this
afternoon. Given the decrease in cloud cover and mixing, this seems
plausible.

Attention is still focused on much drier conditions on Monday behind
a Pacific cold front. Minimum humidities in the teens and 20s are
still expected across the Rio Grande plains, western Hill Country
and southern Edwards Plateau. Gusty west winds are also in store
from mid morning through early evening. The current Fire Weather
Watch for the above mentioned areas will remain intact on Monday.
Intel from TFS suggests fuels are in worse shape across Val Verde
and Edwards, with likely much better green-up in fine fuels due to
recent rains farther south and east into Medina and Frio counties.

Dry air remains intact over the Rio Grande plains, western Hill
Country and southern Edwards Plateau on Tuesday as the rest of the
region drys out behind a secondary push of cooler air. Elevated to
near critical fire weather concerns are expected again on Tuesday
and possibly into Wednesday, mainly over the Rio Grande plains, Hill
Country and southern Edwards Plateau where humidity levels will be
lowest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              59  77  48  69 /  70  40   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  58  77  47  69 /  60  50   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     60  79  48  71 /  50  40   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            55  73  43  66 /  80  20   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           57  80  53  81 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        57  75  43  66 /  80  40   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             58  78  49  78 /  40  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        59  77  47  69 /  60  40   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   61  77  48  68 /  40  60   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       60  78  52  74 /  50  30   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           63  80  52  74 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for Bandera-Dimmit-
Edwards-Frio-Kerr-Kinney-Maverick-Medina-Real-Uvalde-Val Verde-
Zavala.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...KCW
Aviation...Platt


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