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000
FXUS64 KEWX 171718
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1218 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
KEEP THE AIRMASS CAPPED EXCEPT FOR ISOLD TSRA OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 03Z UNTIL AROUND 15-16Z...WHEN CIGS WILL LIFT AND SCT TO VFR
ALL AREAS BY 17Z. SELY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS PREVAILING...EXCEPT
15-20 KNOTS BETWEEN 18Z AND 01Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR CLOUDS
BY LATE MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING VCNTY KDRT MAY LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS. I-35 CORRIDOR
WINDS SOUTH 10 TO 15 KTS. KDRT WINDS SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER TX WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURE
CONTRASTS FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE DRY-LINE MIXING INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES OVER WEST CENTRAL TX WILL
INTERFACE WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ABOVE THE DRY-LINE TO
SUPPORT THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DRY-LINE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY. THE STORMS COULD HAVE HEALTHY CAPES OVER 3000
J/KG AND GOOD DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE BETTER POTENTIAL
IS OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX AND THE LIMITED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS
A POOR POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. WILL EXPECT THE
ENVIRONMENT TO WIND UP SIMILAR TO THAT OF THURSDAY...WHEN SOME
STORMS OVER THE WRN HILL COUNTRY HAD A DIFFICULT TIME BECOMING
ORGANIZED.

WITH LOW COVERAGE OF 5-15 PERCENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WILL KEEP ANY CONCERNS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OUT
OF THE HWO FOR NOW. AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO HELP SHIFT THE DRY-LINE FOCUS
FARTHER NORTH AND POTENTIALLY LOWERING MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX BY DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
ENHANCING CAP STRENGTH. SOME ISOLATED POPS ARE LEFT FOR LATE
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SUNDAY COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER EAST TO
NEAR I-35. CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A TAP TO PACIFIC MOISTURE COULD COMPROMISE CAP
STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS CAN TRIGGER
OVER MEXICO. BY LATE TUESDAY...THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH THAT
IS OVER THE ROCKIES SATURDAY WILL HAVE SHIFTED IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER W TX. THIS
PATTERN IS BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO PROMOTE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT TRENDS FROM THESE TWO MODELS
ARE GOING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS. THUS WILL KEEP CONSERVATIVE ON
RAIN CHANCES WITH SUCH A WEAK PATTERN. A SHARP BUT WEAK UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK...SUGGESTING A RETURN TO
SEASONAL LATE SPRING TEMPS AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED AIR-MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  97  72  94  72 /  10  -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  96  70  93  70 /  -   -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  96  71  94  71 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  96  71  93  70 /  10  10  10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76 100  74 102  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  95  71  93  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  96  72  95  72 /  -   10  10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  95  71  92  71 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  94  72  93  74 /  -   -   -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  95  73  94  73 /  -   -   -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  95  72  93  74 /  -   -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32