National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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FXUS64 KEWX 181455
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
955 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BROUGHT
THE ISOLATED STORMS FUTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AS
WELL. OTHERWISE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER MID
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. I-35 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR CLOUDS BY
LATE MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. I-35
CORRIDOR WINDS SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING
TO SOUTH 15 TO 25 KTS BY LATE MORNING. WINDS LOWERING TO SOUTHEAST
10 TO 15 KTS TOWARDS SUNSET. KDRT TERMINAL BRIEF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING BECOMING VFR CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING.
KDRT WINDS SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
HOT PATTERN TO CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY WITH MORE NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO A SLOW TREND OF MODERATING TEMPS.
MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE DRYLINE AND
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE SHARPER INTERFACE BETWEEN THE
HOT AND DRY AIR AND THE DEEP LOW-TO-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
FARTHER NORTH. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE ANY STRONG STORM
THREATS IN THE HWO FOR THE LACK OF EXPECTED COVERAGE. TROUGHING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN US WILL NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT COULD CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
SHIFTING DRY-LINE WELL MIXED TO PRECLUDE THE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE DRY-
LINE FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT ISOLATED POPS ARE CONTINUED
TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE TRIGGERING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SW AND AN INCREASING MOISTURE TAP FROM THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC...AIDED BY THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD
TREND BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS AS AFTERNOON MIXING BRINGS DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SW. BY TUESDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF I-35 OVER NE TX AND COULD SET UP
A MORE PRODUCTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR NW FLOW THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO N TX...SO THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COOL AIR AVECTION AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO BRING A QUICK RETURN TO STABILITY FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGING TO BE DIRTY TO ALLOW FOR
AIR MASS STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITHOUT A
SPECIFIC FOCUS OR MOISTURE TAP TO HIGHLIGHT DURING THIS
PERIOD...WILL STICK WITH A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST FOR SILENT 10
POPS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5/18
ATT  97/1925
AUS  94/2003 AND OTHER YEARS
SAT  97/1989 AND OTHER YEARS
DRT 103/2003 AND OTHER YEARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              96  72  93  72  94 /  -   -   10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  70  92  70  94 /  -   -   10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     94  70  93  70  94 /  -   -   10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  70  92  70  92 /  -   -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          102  74 100  74 102 /  20  20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  70  91  70  92 /  -   -   10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  71  96  71  96 /  -   10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  71  91  71  91 /  -   -   10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   93  72  92  72  93 /  -   -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  73  94  73  94 /  -   -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  73  94  73  94 /  -   -   10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
