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000
FXUS64 KEWX 120210
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
910 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RADAR DEPICTION OF A WEAK
MESOSCALE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL LIKELY PROLONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS
TO BE CENTERED WEST OF WEBB COUNTY...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS EAST
OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF CLOUDS FROM THE EVENING
CONVECTION...SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS...MAINLY FOR THE WRN HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR AND TO THE S/SW OF
SAN ANTONIO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/

AVIATION...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR TAF
AREAS TONIGHT WHILE UPSLOPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
VICINITY KDRT TERMINAL. I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS VFR CIGS. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT NORTH OVERNIGHT.
KDRT TERMINAL VFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 03Z LOCALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS. KDRT WINDS
NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT EAST BY LATE EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/

UPDATE...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE ISSUED TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE CLOSER TO WHAT WAS FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECREASING TREND AFTER SUNSET...SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL REVERT BACK TO THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST GRIDS BY 10
PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO PRODUCE INDUCED TOPOGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 277 FROM DEL RIO TO PIEDRAS NEGRAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY WITH 60S ELSEWHERE. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS WITH A WARMING TREND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION
OF INCREASED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS AND UPPER LEVEL LIFTING SUPPORT DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS
INITIATION/GENERATION OUT WEST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHILE
EXPANDING EASTWARD LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL
AND THIS MARK THE END OF RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  84  57  85  60 /  10  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  83  53  84  56 /  10  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  84  55  86  58 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  81  54  85  59 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  84  63  88  66 /  30  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  81  54  83  58 /  10  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  83  57  86  60 /  30  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        58  82  55  83  58 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  82  60  85  61 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       60  82  58  84  61 /  20  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  82  58  84  60 /  20  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...02
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30