031
FXUS64 KEWX 071108
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
608 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows low clouds and stratus rapidly
filling over the region early this morning. We`ll wake up to some
patchy fog as well, but the primary concerns with this stratus layer
will be for the aviation community. The short term period will be
hot and mainly dry, but despite no PoPs mentioned, there is an
outside shot at a few showers or storms this afternoon and evening.
Regardless of any precip chances, it will be downright toasty this
afternoon, and with dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s, it`ll feel
even hotter, with heat indices in the 100-105 range along and south
of I-10 and east of I-35/I-37. Heat indices are expected to creep up
even higher on Wednesday as max temps top out in the mid to upper
90s for all locations outside of the Rio Grande Plains, where it
will warm into the 100-105 range. While these HI`s will not reach
heat advisory criteria, it will certainly be the hottest day of the
year so far area wide, so have a plan to stay hydrated, wear light,
loose fitting clothing, and take frequent breaks if you plan to be
outdoors for any extended period of time. If you are not a fan of
the heat this early in the season like me, you can look forward to
the long term period forecast below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The latest round of model guidance has trended a little slower with
the cold front expected to move into the region on Thursday. We have
made some upward adjustments to the expected highs as northwesterly,
downsloping winds behind the dryline push highs into the 100 to 106
degree range across the Rio Grande plains. Farther east, we will see
another hot and humid day with highs mostly in the 90s. With the
cold front arriving closer to the peak heating hours, we will keep a
low chance (around 20%) for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
for the Hill Country and portions of the I-35 corridor north of San
Antonio. Once the hi-res models begin to cover this period, suspect
we may see rain chances go up and expand slightly. With models
suggesting a weak disturbance moving over the region, we can`t rule
out some strong to severe storms during the afternoon and early
evening hours. The current SPC day 3 outlook places a good portion of
the Hill Country and I-35 corridor in a Marginal to Slight risk
(level 1 to 2 out of 5), with large hail and damaging winds the main
severe weather concerns.

Cooler temperatures are on the way beginning Friday and continuing
through the upcoming weekend. Through the mentioned period, expect
highs to range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s along with overnight
lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s. There will be a low chance for
rain out west along the Rio Grande on Friday with rain chances
spreading east into the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill
Country on Saturday. Rain chances eventually make it farther east
into the I-35 corridor and Hill Country on Sunday as the GFS shows a
subtropical upper jet over the region. Temperatures begin to warm
closer to climatological normals on Monday as the dryline sharpens
over west Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

IFR ceilings have failed to materialize at all terminals this
morning, most likely due to increased mid to upper level cloud cover
working through the region from the southwest to northeast. To
account for some uncertainty surrounding IFR ceilings, have opted to
go with a TEMPO group at SAT and SSF. Beyond 18-19Z time frame, all
sites will go VFR and winds should turn back out of the ESE after
briefly turning ENE/variable as a weak frontal boundary/wind shift
works into the region, becoming diffuse and lifting back northward as
a warm front/surface trough. Expect MVFR ceilings to return after
midnight tonight and the I-35 sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              90  73  92  71 /  10  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  73  92  71 /  10  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     91  73  95  71 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            88  72  92  69 /  10  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          100  75 106  71 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        89  72  91  71 /  10  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             92  72  99  69 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  72  93  71 /  10   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  74  91  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       91  73  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           92  74  99  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...MMM