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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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FNUS72 KFFC 170856
FWSFFC

Spot Forecast for 176...USFS
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
456 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Good morning, Tim! Surface high pressure centered to the southeast
of Georgia continues to drive southerly low-level flow into the
area, continuing the trend of warm temperatures and gradually
increasing humidity. Temperatures at the burn site are forecast to
climb above 80 by 1 PM and through the afternoon, and up to a high
of around 86 degrees. Upper level clouds will continue to stream
over the burn site, leading to partly cloudy skies throughout the
day. Relative humidity values this morning are forecast to begin the
morning just under 90 percent, steadily dropping through the morning
and early afternoon. RH values will be under 50 percent through the
afternoon, reaching a minimum RH value of 37 percent around 4-5 PM.
20 ft winds will be S at 2 mph at ignition time, increasing to 5 mph
by 9 AM and shifting to SW at 10 AM. These SW winds will then
increase through the morning, becoming 8-10 mph during the
afternoon. Transport winds will be S at 3 mph at ignition time, but
similarly increase quickly through the morning, up to 7 mph by 9 AM
and shifting to SW at 10 mph by 10 AM. Transport winds will then be
SW at 14-17 mph from 11 AM through the remainder of the afternoon.
These transport winds, combined with mixing heights up to 6000 ft
will lead to very good smoke dispersal this afternoon.

As a cold front advances towards north Georgia late this afternoon,
showers and isolated thunderstorms will advance from northwest to
southeast towards the burn site. Rain chances are forecast to
increase to 20 percent by 8 PM and 30 percent by 10 PM. Measurable
rainfall is currently forecast to remain to the immediate north of
the burn site, although this will be dependent upon how well the
precipitation holds together ahead of the front. The most likely
window for any measurable rainfall is expected to be from around 8
PM until midnight. Please feel free to contact us if you have any
further questions or concerns.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Dewpoint............58 decreasing to 55 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 10 mph shifting to the southwest 14
                    to 17 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (81100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................4 early in the morning increasing to 88 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......15 decreasing to 12 in the late morning and
                    early afternoon, then increasing to 15 late in
                    the afternoon increasing to 20 late in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........59  65  67  54  56  37  42  41  45  55
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............61  66  71  74  77  81  83  83  84  84
Dewpoint........58  58  60  59  58  57  57  56  55  55
RH..............88  76  68  59  53  44  40  39  37  37
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..2   5   5   6   8   9   10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.5   7   9   12  14  16  17  18  18  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.7 1.8 2.3 3.1 4.7 5.4 5.6 5.9 6.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.3   7   10  14  15  16  16  17  16  15
LVORI...........6   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............4   8   25  37  50  88  86  73  76  69
Haines index....4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1   8   21  27  40  65  78  79  80  81
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD
Ceiling (kft)...15  15  12  12  12  12  12  15  20  20

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers early in the evening. Chance of showers
                    late in the evening, then slight chance of
                    showers overnight.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 20 percent early in
                    the evening, then increasing to 30 percent late
                    in the evening decreasing to 20 percent
                    overnight decreasing to 10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Dewpoint............58.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming west around 5 mph
                    late in the evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 13 mph shifting to the west 3 to
                    5 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (61400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................50 early in the evening decreasing to 1 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......20 decreasing to 15 early in the evening, then
                    decreasing to 10 early in the evening
                    decreasing to 9.0 late in the evening
                    increasing to 10 increasing to 20 after 3 am
                    decreasing to 10 decreasing to 9.0 early in the
                    morning.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........60  69  73  75  84  86  89  85  84  76  68  52
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  20  20  30  30  20  10  10  0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............83  80  77  73  71  70  68  67  65  65  64  63
Dewpoint........56  57  58  59  59  59  60  60  60  60  60  60
RH..............39  45  52  60  65  69  77  79  84  85  87  90
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  W   W
20 FT wind spd..9   7   5   5   3   5   3   3   3   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.15  13  9   7   7   7   6   6   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.4 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   NW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.13  9   6   6   5   5   5   5   3   3   3   3
LVORI...........1   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   5   6   6   7
ADI.............50  10  4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   1
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..61  22  2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Ventrate Cat....GD  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...20  15  10  10  10  9.0 10  12  12  20  10  9.0

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Dewpoint............61.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......6200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 2 to 10 mph shifting to the south around 8
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (46500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................1 early in the morning increasing to 64 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......9.0 decreasing to 6.0 early in the morning,
                    then decreasing to 3.5 late in the morning
                    increasing to 15 late in the morning increasing
                    to 25.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........43  26  19  18  15  14  11  5   2   3   6   7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  62  62  66  71  75  80  83  85  87  88  87
Dewpoint........60  60  60  61  62  63  63  62  61  60  59  59
RH..............94  94  94  84  75  66  56  49  44  40  39  39
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   NW  NW  W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   3   3   5   5   5   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.5   3   5   5   6   7   8   8   9   9   10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.5 3.2 4.7 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  S
Transp wind spd.2   2   3   6   8   10  9   7   6   6   8   8
LVORI...........7   7   7   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............1   3   3   7   20  32  37  42  37  44  56  64
Haines index....3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1   1   1   6   16  22  23  25  26  31  41  47
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR
Ceiling (kft)...9.0 6.0 6.0 3.5 15  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

$$
Forecaster...King
Requested by...Tim Kolnik
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411156.0/FFC
.DELDT 04/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL timothy.kolnik@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
