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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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FNUS72 KFFC 161652
FWSFFC

Spot Forecast for 116...USFS
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1252 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Hi, Amy. The dense, mid-level/upper-level cloud cover (with cloud
bases at 10,000 feet to 15,000 feet) over the burn site at the
time of this writing is forecasted to push eastward and exit by
1:30 PM to 2:30 PM. As this cloud cover decreases, relative
humidity will decrease markedly, bottoming out between 30% to 35%
between 3 PM and 6 PM -- not quite as dry as the previous forecast
given the longevity/coverage of the clouds. Upper-level cloud
cover around 20,000 feet to 25,000 feet -- albeit thinner -- will
persist through the evening. 20-foot winds are expected to be
nearly due south at 4-7 mph. Transport winds are expected to be
south-southwesterly at 8-16 mph.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Dewpoint............57 decreasing to 52 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (42400 knot-ft).
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................46 to 86.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......15 increasing to 20 late in the afternoon, then
                    decreasing to 15 late in the afternoon
                    increasing to 20 late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........53  46  48  50  43
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1
Temp............77  80  82  85  85
Dewpoint........58  56  53  51  51
RH..............52  44  37  31  31
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   7   7
20 FT wind gust.9   10  10  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.13  15  16  16  15
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............46  76  80  86  78
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..42  54  55  57  58
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  FR  FR  FR
Ceiling (kft)...15  15  20  15  20

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Dewpoint............54.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (43700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................49 early in the evening decreasing to 2 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......15 increasing to 20 early in the evening, then
                    decreasing to 15 early in the evening
                    increasing to 20 late in the evening decreasing
                    to 15.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........36  35  40  35  47  60  31  49  69  84  88  92
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............83  81  77  72  69  67  66  65  64  64  63  62
Dewpoint........52  52  52  55  55  55  56  56  56  56  56  56
RH..............34  37  42  55  60  65  69  71  73  76  79  81
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  S
20 FT wind spd..7   5   3   2   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.12  9   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3   5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.12  8   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
LVORI...........1   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4
ADI.............49  4   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..44  16  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Ventrate Cat....FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...15  20  15  20  20  20  20  15  15  15  15  15

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (55-65 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Dewpoint............58.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 1 to 7 mph increasing to southwest 13 to
                    18 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (63200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................1 early in the morning increasing to 85 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......15 decreasing to 9.0.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........91  82  83  74  60  62  58  51  47  55  70  77
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............61  61  61  65  69  73  77  80  82  84  84  83
Dewpoint........56  56  57  59  59  60  59  59  59  58  58  57
RH..............83  84  84  80  71  62  55  49  45  42  41  42
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   1   3   5   6   7   8   9   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.3   3   2   6   7   10  12  14  16  15  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.9 2.5 3.6 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.2   1   2   7   13  17  18  18  17  18  18  17
LVORI...........5   5   5   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............1   2   2   7   24  42  52  70  85  70  70  66
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1   1   1   8   22  29  37  55  63  63  63  62
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD
Ceiling (kft)...15  15  15  15  15  15  15  12  12  10  9.0 9.0

$$
Forecaster...Martin
Requested by...Amy Galetka
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410997.1/FFC
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL timothy.kolnik@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
