660
FXUS65 KFGZ 040347
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
847 PM MST Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and mostly dry conditions will continue through
tomorrow. Winds will start to increase ahead of an incoming low
pressure system on Saturday, peaking on Sunday. Slight chance for
isolated showers along the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday, elsewhere
will remain mostly dry. Elevated winds will continue through much
of next week, and warm/dry conditions will persist.

&&

.UPDATE...Winds are decreasing this evening, with the remnants of
some high-based cumulus persisting in northeast Arizona. Look for
overnight lows similar to last night`s values. The deep low
pressure system set to really increase our winds this weekend is
starting to move onshore the Pac NW and northern California this
evening. A High Wind Watch is in effect for most of northern AZ on
Sunday, be prepared for strong and possibly damaging winds.
Current forecasts are in good shape this evening with no updates
needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /453 PM MST/...Above normal temperatures, breezy
afternoon winds and mostly dry conditions have been our main song
and dance for the last several days. Our tune will shift over the
weekend, as a strong low-pressure system slides down the Great
Basin region.

The first indication of this invading pressure system will be
increasing winds on Saturday. Look for southwest winds 15-25 mph,
gusting 25-35 mph, throughout the afternoon. Stronger winds may be
present along our Mohave County border, and elevated winds look to
continue overnight for many areas along higher terrain.

Sunday is when the main impacts of this storm system will unveil.
Gusty southwest winds will start around 7AM MST/8AM MDT and
continue through at least 9PM MST/10PM MDT. Gusty in this case is
referring to sustained winds 30 to 40 mph, with gusts between
45-65 mph. Keep in mind, winds might not jump to these high of
speeds first thing in the morning, but will continue to increase
throughout the morning/afternoon. As a result of these strong
winds, a High Wind Watch has been issued for much of northern
Arizona for Sunday. Hazards may include, but are not limited to,
difficult travel for high profile vehicles, power outages, and
areas of blowing dust. Strong/damaging winds are not the only
point of focus for Sunday though. There is also a near-critical
to critical fire weather concern for portions of eastern Arizona.
Relative humidity values do increase slightly on Sunday, but even
so, there are still some areas that will be very susceptible to
rapid fire starts/spreads. Thus, a Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for Sunday for areas near Eagar, Springerville and St.
Johns. This watch is valid between 11AM MST/12PM MDT to 7PM
MST/8PM MDT. Check back for any updates to the High Wind Watch
and/or the Fire Weather Watch.

Early next week, this storm system will push northeast and allow a
zonal flow to return over northern Arizona. Temperatures will
slowly warm from Sunday, but still remain a couple degree below
normal through the middle of next week. Winds will also remain
gusty near our eastern border with the exit of the storm system,
but typical spring-like breezes should return for much of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 04/00Z through Sunday 05/00Z...Expect VFR conditions
with scattered mid-level cumulus clouds. Winds will be out of the
west-southwest at 10-20 kts until 02Z, becoming light and variable
overnight through most of Saturday morning. South- southwest winds
gradually increasing after 17Z, reaching sustained speeds 15-20 kts
gusting 25-30 kts during the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 05/00Z through Tuesday 07/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions
will persist but with increasing clouds Saturday night into Sunday,
along with a 10-30% chance of light rain showers along/north of a
KGCN-KRQE line Sunday afternoon and evening. Southwest winds 15-25
kts Saturday night, strengthening to 25-35 kts gusting to 40-55 kts
on Sunday. Periods of MVFR visibility in blowing dust are likely from
KINW-KSJN-KRQE northward for Sunday afternoon. Winds gradually decreasing
Sunday night, with west winds 15-20 kts gusting 20-30 kts on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Mild temperatures and dry
conditions will persist through Saturday. Saturday will see
afternoon southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. On
Sunday much stronger winds develop becoming southwest at 20 to 30
mph gusting of 40 to 55 mph before noon. Areas prone to downsloping
winds, including along and directly east of the Mogollon Rim, White
Mountains, and across portions of the Navajo Nation, will experience
even stronger winds of 60+ mph for much of the day. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are likely on Sunday over far east
Arizona. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of east
central Arizona.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry and a bit warmer. Westerly winds at
10 to 20 mph gusting to 35 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
AZZ004>017-039-040.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for AZZ114.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/Konieczny
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff