712
FXUS65 KFGZ 060536
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1036 PM MST Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A strong low pressure system will exit the region
overnight with gradually decreasing winds and clearing skies. For
the coming week, it will remain breezy and temperatures below
seasonal averages as several dry weather disturbances cross the
region.

&&

.UPDATE...Showers have developed along and ahead of a cold front
pushing eastward this evening. At 7 PM, the front stretched along
a line from Ash Fork to Grand Canyon, to Page. Convective
rain/graupel showers have developed in the Flagstaff region, with
steadier rain/snow along the front. Snow levels have crashed to at
least 6500 feet in NW Coconino County, with heavy snow reported at
the South Rim as well as US Hwy 89A through Jacob Lake. Traffic
cams snow accumulation in these areas, including on road surfaces.
The band looks to move east of the Grand Canyon by 8-9 PM, with
the heaviest part of the band probably remaining north of
Flagstaff but it will be close. Later this evening, higher
elevation snow above 6000 feet will spread into northeast Arizona
with some light accumulation possible there as well. As far as
winds are concerned, they have peaked west of a Winslow to Kayenta
line and will gradually shift to westerly and decrease the rest of
the evening. Still a threat of some 50-60 mph gusts east of this
line through around 9 PM. Updates were sent earlier to cover the
higher coverage of precipitation this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /538 PM MST/...

For Monday and the coming week...Dry and colder air behind the
current system will result in the threat of subfreezing morning
temperatures at elevations roughly above 6500 through Thursday or
Friday. So if you have done some early planting or have other
sensitive plants you probably want to offer them some protection.
Also, hoses, probably best if you disconnect those for the next
few days. Surface pressure gradients will weaken with the passing
of the current system. However, a dry and weaker disturbance will
approach and move across Arizona from Monday into Tuesday. The
result will be west winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 mph on
Monday afternoon increasing to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around
35 mph on Tuesday, especially from the Mogollon Rim northward.
Starting Wednesday pressure gradients weaken further with more
typical afternoon winds in the 10 to 25 mph range. Mainly dry
disturbances will continue to brush Arizona through the week with
both high and low temperatures remaining below seasonal averages
through much of the period, perhaps warming to near normal by
Friday or Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 06/06Z through Tuesday 07/06Z...Winds will shift
to westerly and decrease overnight behind a cold front, though
some gusts 20-30 kts will still be possible from 0V7-KSOW
eastward. An area of RA/SN northeast of a 0V7-KRQE line with
MVFR/IFR conditions will push east of the state line by 07Z, with
clearing skies and VFR conditions elsewhere. VFR conditions with
west winds 10-20 kts and gusts near 25 kts on Monday.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 07/06Z through Thursday 09/06Z...VFR conditions expected
through the outlook period. West to southwest wind 15-25 kts Tuesday
afternoon, gusting up to 35 kts mainly north of a KFLG-KSOW line.
Northwest wind 10-15 kts gusting near 25 kts Wednesday. A large
prescribed fire project could bring some smoke impacts around KFLG
beginning Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This evening through Tuesday...Southwest winds
gusting 45-60mph will slowly diminish this evening, with lighter
west winds on Monday and Tuesday gusting 20-35mph. Dry conditions
are expected.

Wednesday through Friday...Seasonably breezy conditions will
continue through Friday, with dry conditions and temperatures a few
degrees below normal. Min RH will range from 5-15 percent each
day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST /midnight MDT/ this evening
for AZZ014-017.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/McCollum
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff