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000
FXUS64 KFWD 102030
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
330 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 108 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/
/Now through Thursday Afternoon/

The parent upper low of our slow-moving storm system is finally
traversing over North and Central Texas. Showers and storms will
continue to blossom in response to the maximized large-scale lift
and move east over the rest of this afternoon and evening. Steep mid-
level lapse rates and MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg will allow for
the continued potential for some stronger storms capable of small
hail this afternoon, mainly near and east of I-35.The better
chances for severe weather today are to our east in the deep
south.

The biggest concern today remains the ongoing potential for flash
flooding across areas east of I-35, where the most rainfall
accumulations have been observed over the last two days. With the
ongoing and future rain chances today, another 1-2" (isolated
spots up to 3") of accumulated rainfall is expected for areas in
the northeast, exacerbating already moist soils and previously
flooded spots. Make sure to stay aware of road conditions this
afternoon during your commute, and to never drive through flooded
roads.

As the upper low advances east, guidance shows a surge in low
level wind speeds on the back side of the system. With a little
aid from mixing in spots of clearing skies, some of these
increased winds will make it to the surface. This has already
been seen in a few spots like DFW, who gusted to 41 mph around
12:20 PM. These temporary increased speeds may near or briefly
exceed Wind Advisory criteria. However, will forgo an advisory
issuance with this forecast package as criteria exceedance will
be migratory and isolated over the afternoon as the low moves
east.

The last vestiges of rain will come to an end late tonight in
East Texas as the upper low and attendant surface low just to our
south exit to the east/southeast. What we`ll be left with clear
skies after days of clouds and brisk north-northwest winds. Cool
conditions are expected on Thursday morning due to these northerly
winds, with lows in the 40s and 50s. Afternoon temperatures will
be able to rise into the 70s thanks to ample sunshine.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Through the Middle of Next Week/

South winds will return on Friday, but low-level moisture will be
slow to return. The low humidity and southerly breeze will make
for a pleasant day with seasonal daytime temperatures reaching the
70s and 80s. The sun will be filtered by some high clouds from the
Pacific riding over the top of mid-level ridging.

Temperatures and moisture will steadily increase this weekend. Low
clouds on Sunday will fail to dampen the warming trend, with 80s
regionwide. Locations across the Big Country may top 90F. These
high temperatures will be more like May, making it a great weekend
for outdoor activities.

While there is less disparity among extended guidance with the
evolution of our next storm system early next week, significant
differences remain with respect to placement and timing.
Nonetheless, lee troughing and a pronounced West Texas dryline are
still on tap for Monday. A warm and well moistened boundary layer,
coupled with increasing shear and steepening lapse rates aloft,
will set the stage for our next severe weather event. Although the
dryline will likely be to our west at peak heating Monday
afternoon, broad forcing for ascent may allow for convective
initiation deeper into the warm sector. While it`s still too early
to pinpoint locations or specific threats, continue to monitor our
forecast updates in the coming days and be prepared for inclement
weather on Monday.

A hybrid dryline/Pacific frontal surge will move the boundary deep
into North Texas on Tuesday. As the parent system ejects into the
Great Lakes, the boundary will lose its forward progress,
retreating as an effective warm front, which could serve as the
focus for another round of storms late Tuesday. Southwesterly flow
will prevail aloft, but the upper support may be lacking for a
repeat of strong/severe convection. This unsettled pattern will
remain in place through at least the middle of next week.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 108 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Poor flying conditions will continue through the afternoon as the
last round of showers and storms moves through the TAF sites. By
mid afternoon (~21-22Z), all TAF sites should be rain-free and
back to VFR. Strong and gusty north-northwest winds are expected
to persist as an upper low moves across the region, but will die
down to around 10 kts by late tonight. Clear skies and VFR will
prevail through the rest of the period. Winds will be on the
increase once again late tomorrow morning, but will not be as
gusty as today.

Prater

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    53  74  52  80  58 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                50  73  49  77  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               51  69  45  75  54 /  60   0   0   0   0
Denton              48  72  46  79  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            50  71  48  77  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dallas              53  73  51  80  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
Terrell             51  71  48  77  55 /  20   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           52  74  50  78  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
Temple              50  75  49  79  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       47  74  48  82  56 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ095-105>107-
121>123-135-146>148-161.

&&

$$