Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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989 FXUS63 KGID 111121 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 621 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light westerly winds, partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and temperatures near 80 degrees will make for a spectacular Saturday across the region. - Clouds, and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area overnight tonight as an upper level low approaches the area from the intermountain west. - Overall, seasonably mild temperatures with off and on again chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast through the end up the upcoming week. At this point, the odds for severe thunderstorms any particular day appears low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Clear skies and light westerly winds have persisted across the local area overnight. This has allowed for good viewing of the northern lights across the area along with seasonably cool low temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to near 50 early this morning. For today, expect surface winds to remain westerly ahead of an upper level low expected to track mainly south of the local area Sunday into Monday. These westerly winds will allow temperatures to warm to near 80 by early afternoon, and looking at model soundings, could once again see some fair weather CU develop this afternoon, although with very low depoints - even sprinkles appear unlikely. As a result, have some partly cloudy skies for this afternoon but kept the forecast completely dry. While the brunt of this next system is expected to pass south of the local area Sunday evening into Monday, expect the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to return to both south central Nebraska and north central Kansas as early as tonight, and continuing off and on through Monday afternoon. While there is some very modest instability to work with, shear in the atmosphere is minimal, and severe weather over this period appears unlikely. The increased cloud cover and shower activity, however, should hold afternoon temperatures down closer to Climatology for this time of year, which is right around 70 degrees. Behind this system, the daytime hours Tuesday should be dry and mostly sunny across the region, allowing afternoon temperatures to climb back closer to 80 across the local area. This will be ahead of a weak cold front, however, which should bring slightly cooler temperatures back to the area on Wednesday along with the return for at least the potential for additional showers and non-severe thunderstorms. Thereafter...the upper level pattern will become zonal through the end of the week, with additional, smaller chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area each day along with seasonably mild temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period...although clouds will be on the increase later this afternoon as an upper level low approaches the local area from the west. Looking at model soundings and time heights of data...expect a CIG near 5 KFT to develop by mid-evening...with a VCSH possible by the very tail end of the TAF periods. Winds overall will be less than 10 KTS out of the west during the daytime hours, becoming more southwesterly as the low approaches this evening. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Rossi