Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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094 FXUS63 KGLD 021940 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 140 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front late Friday afternoon and Friday evening will result in a line of thunderstorms moving through the area with a marginal risk of severe storms. The main hazards will be potentially widespread strong winds along and behind the front as well as blowing dust. There are lower risks for hail and perhaps a brief tornado along the front. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024 Surface high pressure in control today with northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph in the early afternoon and continuing to slowly diminish as the pressure gradient relaxes. Tonight, a weak shortwave trough moving out of Colorado may produce a few isolated light rain showers, mainly in Colorado. Mean QPF amounts are a few hundredths of an inch across northwest Yuma County, less elsewhere. Low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Friday will be mostly sunny and dry in the morning then increasing clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in western areas during the afternoon. Shortwave trough moving through the northern plains will send a cold front racing down the plains in the late afternoon hours and through the evening. Models suggest a line of thunderstorms will develop along the front. Instability is fairly limited, topping out around 500-800 j/kg, but deep layer shear remains strong at around 50 kts. While can`t discount a low end risk for hail or even a brief tornado with the sharp frontal boundary, main hazards Friday evening will be strong winds and perhaps blowing dust. Low level lapse rates are not particularly favorable behind the front, but there is a narrow corridor of more favorable rates just ahead of it. Rainfall last night in many areas will be working against the blowing dust potential. Given all the variables confidence in blowing dust is medium at best, but confidence in wind is high. HREF probabilities show about 20-30% of members with gusts of over 50 mph centered around 03z with the front. Some local gusts could be higher with convective enhancement. The line of storms should be moving out of the western counties by 06z and eastern counties by 09z. HREF mean precipitation amounts are generally around a quarter to a half an inch, with 90th percentile amounts of up to 1". Low temperatures will range from the lower 30s in northeast Colorado to the middle 40s in north central Kansas. Saturday will be mostly sunny and dry during the day with highs in the low to mid 60s. Flow aloft will transition to southwest ahead of a system entering the Pacific coast, with northeast to easterly winds at the surface. A shortwave trough coming out of New Mexico ahead of the system will bring a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms to areas south of Interstate 70 Saturday night. SBCAPE and MUCAPE are more or less zero with weak shear, so no severe storms are expected. 12-hour mean precipitation amounts are less than a tenth of an inch by early Sunday morning. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s. Southwest flow continues on Sunday with possible weak embedded waves. At the surface will see increasing southeast winds, breezy to windy by the afternoon with mostly cloudy skies. Might see a few scattered light showers through the day, but best chances will be in the morning with any lingering showers from Saturday night. There is some minimal SBCAPE available in the afternoon (100-200 j/kg) so an isolated thunderstorm is possible, but severe storms not expected. High temperatures optimistically forecast to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, but would not be surprised if they were a bit cooler. The low chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms continues into Sunday night as upper heights continue to fall ahead of the main trough axis approaching the central Rockies by that time. Low temperatures will range from the upper 40s to middle 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 217 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024 Saturday morning the area is under west-southwesterly flow aloft with upper level ridging now centered over the Intermountain West and the next low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. After a mostly dry day Saturday with high pressure moving across, weak waves will then move through the flow in the Saturday evening-Sunday timeframe and may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms (~20-30% chance). Sunday afternoon-evening the upper low progresses across the Great Basin. Breezy to windy conditions are expected Sunday into Monday due to the tightening gradient between high pressure moving off to the east and a developing low in the lee of the Rockies. Current forecast calls for gusts to around 30-40 mph. Into the first part of the work week, winds of this magnitude may create critical fire weather conditions, mainly focused across west and southwest portions of the area where relative humidity is forecast to drop into the 10-20% range. Also expecting showers and thunderstorms for parts of the area on Monday. Some uncertainty remains in position of the surface low which would influence severe potential. If any part of the CWA would be favored to see strong to severe storm potential, expecting it`d be across the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of the area where CAPE values to around 1000-2000 J/kg coincide with better moisture and ample shear. Current confidence is low as the latest guidance has trended the surface low farther east, and the severe potential for our CWA hinges on its timing/ placement. Will continue to monitor as guidance comes in better alignment. SPC`s current Day 6 (Monday) 15% risk is east of the area, from southwest NE/eastern half of KS/central OK. Tuesday-Wednesday may again have potential for portions of the area (mainly west and southwest) reaching near-critical to critical fire weather conditions with RH forecast in the teens and winds gusting 25-35 Tuesday and to around 25 mph Wednesday. For temperatures, highs are forecast generally in the 60s for Saturday before undergoing a warming trend into the 70s to low 80s by the start of the work week, ever so slightly cooler Wednesday- Thursday. For low temperatures, expecting low-mid 40s Sunday morning, into the upper 40s to middle 50s Monday morning, and upper 30s to mid-upper 40s Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday mornings. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1107 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Northwest surface winds will gust up to 25 kts through this afternoon, diminishing tonight, then increase again Friday morning from the southeast and gust up to 30 kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...024