Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230934
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
334 AM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous fire weather conditions expected on Sunday.

- Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
  damaging winds and even an isolated tornado, may develop
  along and east of Highway 25 Sunday afternoon.

- Very strong north winds expected in the wake of an Arctic cold
  frontal passage late Sunday afternoon and evening.

- Accumulating snow and blowing snow possible Sunday night into
  Monday morning.

- Dangerous travel conditions likely along the I-70 corridor in
  far northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado late Sunday into
  Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

A very active 72-hour period is expected for the entire Tri State
region this weekend on into next Monday. With a strong surface ridge
continuing to nose south and east into the Plains/Mississippi River
Valley areas, winds over the CWA are E/SE. Gusts up to 20 mph at
times in the west as the gradient begins to tighten with a front/low
setting up over east-central Colorado. Mainly clear skies at this
time are giving the region temps as of 200 AM MDT, mid 20s to lower
30s.

Saturday/Saturday night...the main wx focus for this timeframe will
be the increasing southerly gradient over the CWA. The focus of the
stronger winds will be in areas west of Highway 25. This will be the
area of warmer temps as well due to the proximity of the cold ridge.
Some gusts could approach the 30-35 mph range. Please refer to the
Fire Wx section below for concerns. The aforementioned front/low to
the west will begin to drift eastward going into the evening hours,
with guidance suggests a few showers developing in Colorado. Above
normal warmth expected overnight due to the southerly flow ahead of
the boundary.

Daytime highs will range widely due to the strong surface ridge over
eastern portions of the region, and the tight southerly gradient
working west. Looking for a range from the mid 50s to lower 60s
along/east of Highway 25. Coolest areas east of Highway 83. West of
Highway 25, mid 60s to around 70F, with warmest locales in northeast
Colorado to the KS/NE border. Lows tonight will range from the upper
30s west into the mid 40s east.

Sunday/Sunday night...the main wx focus for this timeframe will be
the position of the frontal boundary. This will focus the potential
for severe wx to the east, with scattered t-storm potential
elsewhere. SPC keeps Marginal/Slight Risk areas over a good portions
of the CWA Sunday. Instability focused mainly east of Highway 25.
potential for large hail, damaging winds and even an isolated
tornado, especially east of Highway 83.

Also on Sunday the gradient ahead of the front will keep 30-40 mph
gusts, stoking fire wx concerns. Please refer to the Fire Wx section
below for further information.

Blowing dust parameters suggest some potential along the boundary as
well.

The transition into the evening and overnight hours will be the
worse timeframe. First, as the low and front shift east, expecting a
strong northerly gradient to develop. Guidance showing strong 3-hr
pressure rises behind the front. Gusts up to the 55 to 65 mph range
are possible. Will also next forecast shift another look at updated
guidance, but a High Wind Watch is probable and may carry into
Monday morning. CAA advection accompanying these winds will change
over and rain to snow. Track of the 500/700 mb lows is broad,
extending northward into Nebraska. Some hints at snow band potential
on the backside of these lows, but guidance is mixed. Right now,
keeping a low chance for north central areas to see this.

The bulk of the QPF does remain north of the CWA, but 1-2 inches of
snow is not out of the question. There is strong 850 frontogenesis
on the backside, but most at 700mb is too far north. If these
interact in later runs, several inches of snow is possible. The
snow/wind combo will create some blowing snow concerns, especially
north of the Interstate where best snow chances are.

Daytime highs on Sunday will range mainly from the mid 60s up to the
lower 70s in some locales. Frontal boundary moving eastward from
Colorado will begin to limit temperatures and will depend on the
speed of the front, with low attached and the subsequent shift from
southerly to northerly flow as a result. Overnight lows will range
from the upper teens west into the mid 20s east. Wind chill readings
will range mainly in the single numbers above/below zero, with some
lower teens east of Highway 83. Coldest wind chills in Colorado.

The cold wind chills will impact those with agricultural/livestock
concerns.

Monday/Monday night...the main wx focus for this timeframe will be
precipitation coming slowly to an end during the morning hours. Sfc
ridge will begin to nose southward through the day, combined with
ridging aloft to aid in clearing the region out. As the snow shower
activity comes to an end, the strong northerly flow will persist
through the morning hours, and maybe into the afternoon for locales
east of Highway 25. Current NBM guidance is suggesting winds around
50 mph are possible, with some locales early Monday morning still
near High Wind criteria. With skies clearing, snow pack in spots and
decreasing winds, temps will drop overnight with some dangerous wind
chill potential in spots.

Daytime highs on Monday will be below normal in the 30s, with lows
Monday night colder than Sunday night with lower to mid teens
expected. With skies slowly clear from west to east towards sunrise
Tuesday, along with any snow on the ground, the aforementioned lows
could end up being a few degrees colder in spots. Wind chill values
as a result will range in the single numbers above zero.

Again, the cold wind chills will impact those with agricultural/
livestock concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Temperatures remain below normal on Tuesday as a large trough
remains in place across the central CONUS. Expecting highs to be
in the 40s and lows in the teens and 20s. Can`t completely rule
out a stray rain or snow shower with any weak energy rotating
through the trough axis, but it will be mostly dry. Ridge starts
to build in from the west on Wednesday with warming
temperatures. Highs will be in the 50s and lows in the 20s to
near 30. Ridge axis moves across on Thursday with dry conditions
and temperatures warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Fire
weather parameters will approach critical criteria west of
Highway 83 with lowest humidity along and west of the Colorado
and Kansas border area. On Friday will see a southwesterly flow
aloft as next shortwave trough settles into the central Rockies.
Scattered rain showers will be possible with best chances north
of Interstate 70 Thursday night through Friday night. Highs on
Friday will be in the 60s to near 70. Low relative humidity and
gusty west to northwest winds, up to 40 mph is currently shown
by the NBM Friday afternoon, will result in another day of
possible critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through 09z
with winds from the southeast gusting up to 25kts. From 10z-15z,
stratus will produce sub VFR cigs with winds continuing from the
southeast, gusting up to 25kts or so. After 16z, VFR conditions
return with southerly winds gusting up to 35kts.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through 09z
with winds from the east around 11kts. From 10z-17z, stratus
will produce sub VFR cigs with winds from the east-southeast,
gusting up to 25kts or so. After 18z, VFR conditions return with
winds continuing from the southeast, gusting 30-35kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Saturday: Breezy south winds will develop in assoc/w a
tightening pressure gradient on the eastern periphery of a
deepening lee cyclone in Colorado, with sustained winds ~25-35
mph and gusts up to 45 mph. While Red Flag Warning criteria will
not be met (RH > 20-25 percent).. the presence of breezy south
winds, well above normal temperatures and dry conditions /lack
of antecedent precipitation/ suggest a very high to locally
extreme potential for fire spread, especially south of I-70.

Sunday: Breezy S and SW winds will shift to the N late Sunday
afternoon and evening.. as the aforementioned lee cyclone tracks
eastward across the region and an Arctic cold front surges
southeastward through the Tri-State area. A Fire Weather Watch
remains in effect for Wallace, Logan, Greeley and Wichita
counties.. where deep vertical mixing is more likely to foster
an extended period of breezy to strong SW winds and very dry
surface conditions. An abrupt northerly wind shift will occur
late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening as an Arctic cold
front surges southeastward through northwest Kansas. Very strong
north winds will accompany and follow the frontal passage. This
would create an extremely dangerous situation, if a fire were
to be ongoing at the time of the frontal passage.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for KSZ027-028-041-042.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...BV


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