Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FGUS73 KGLD 010120
ESFGLD
COC017-063-125-KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-
203-NEC057-087-145-011330-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
620 PM MST Thu Feb 29 2024 /720 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024/

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook...

This outlook applies to the Goodland Hydrologic Service Area (HSA)
which refers to major rivers located...

- In Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado
- In Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties in Nebraska
- In 13 northwest Kansas counties whose southeast boundaries are
delineated by Greeley, Wichita, Logan, Gove, Graham and Norton
counties.

These river systems include:

-The Republican River
-The North and South Forks of the Republican River
-The North and South Forks of the Solomon River
-The Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers
-Beaver, Sappa and Prairie Dog Creeks

This outlook is valid from February 29 through March 14, 2024.

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give an
advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil
moisture, snowpack, magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook
is issued. Outlooks are also based on normal future temperature and
precipitation. Thus, if future conditions are not normal, then
actual crests will differ from this outlook. The vast majority of
flood events in the Goodland Service Area result from short periods
of higher intensity precipitation, or longer periods of excessive
precipitation.

For calendar year so far, the region has seen 0.1 inches up to 3
inches of precipitation. Most of this has fallen as snow that has
all by now. Locations southeast of a line from Oberlin, KS to
Wallace, KS have seen the highest amounts of precipitation so far.

No known snowpack remains. Current soil temperatures are ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, according to the latest two and four
inch soil temperatures, courtesy of the Kansas State mesonet.

Soil moisture conditions at the 20 cm depth are currently above
normal while the 0-100 cm average soil moisture is below normal.
This is primarily due to recent precipitation and a long dry spell
at the end of last year. Above normal temperatures for the upcoming
week are expected to continue to dry out the soil.

The current Drought Monitor Index (www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) shows
a small amount of severe drought over the far eastern HSA quickly
becoming less severe to the west. East of the Colorado border and
north of I-70, abnormally dry conditions are found with the
remainder of the HSA not classified by the drought monitor. The 3-
month outlook (valid for February 15 - May 31), shows likely drought
removal across the Goodland Service Area.

NOAA`s Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov),
latest 8-14 day outlook forecasts above normal temperatures and
precipitation for the March 8-14 time frame. The latest 3-month
outlook for March, April, and May, forecasts equal chances for above
and below normal temperatures and leans towards above normal
precipitation.

Reservoir level conservation pool capacities currently range at
Enders Dam, 19.5 percent. For the Medicine Creek Dam, 92.1 percent.
For the Norton Dam in northwest Kansas, 52.3 percent. For the Red
Willow Dam, 47.2 percent and for the Trenton Dam, 56.2 percent. All
of these are increasing from over the past two weeks.

Visit our web site weather.gov/gld for more weather and water
information.

Flooding potential over the next two weeks is unlikely due to
previous dry conditions, but cannot be ruled out entirely due to
above average precipitation being expected.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  03/02/2024  - 05/31/2024

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:SMOKY HILL R AT OAKLEY KS 22S
OKYK1               9.0  11.0  13.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:HACKBERRY CR AT GOVE KS 4W
GOVK1              19.0  21.0  23.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT ARNOLD KS 12N
ARNK1               7.0   9.0  11.0     6   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL R  AT SCHOENCHEN KS 2E
SCSK1              11.0  14.0  17.0     5    8   <5    6   <5   <5
:BIG CR AT ELLIS KS
ELLK1              15.0  17.0  19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG CR AT HAYS KS 2SSE
HYSK1              26.0  29.0  32.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT RUSSELL KS 8S
RSLK1              18.0  20.0  38.0    <5    9   <5    5   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT ELLSWORTH KS
ELWK1              20.0  24.0  27.0     6    9   <5    6   <5   <5
:SALINE R AT WAKEENEY KS 5N
WAAK1              13.0  15.0  17.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SALINE R AT RUSSELL KS 5N
RUSK1              18.0  20.0  23.0     5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LENORA AT LENORA KS
LNRK1              10.0  12.0  14.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:N FK SOLOMON R AT GLADE KS 1S
GDEK1              11.0  16.0  18.0     6   15   <5    8   <5   <5
:BOW CR AT STOCKTON KS 9N
SKTK1               9.0  12.0  13.6     8   24   <5    7   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 03/02/2024  - 05/31/2024

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:SMOKY HILL R
OKYK1       4.2/    4.2/    4.4/    5.8/    7.1/    7.9/    8.4

:HACKBERRY CR
GOVK1       4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.3/    9.4/   10.6

:SMOKY HILL R
ARNK1       0.1/    0.1/    0.2/    1.6/    4.8/    6.1/    7.3
SCSK1       2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    3.2/    5.2/    7.9/   11.2

:BIG CR
ELLK1       9.4/    9.4/    9.4/    9.4/   10.1/   12.0/   12.6
HYSK1       4.9/    4.9/    4.9/    5.6/    8.3/   13.9/   17.3

:SMOKY HILL R
RSLK1       3.7/    3.7/    4.3/    6.5/   10.3/   13.7/   16.6
ELWK1       1.3/    1.4/    3.5/    5.8/    9.5/   16.4/   21.6

:SALINE R
WAAK1       2.2/    2.2/    2.3/    2.3/    5.8/    9.4/   11.4
RUSK1       4.2/    4.2/    4.4/    6.5/    8.7/   15.6/   17.9

:LENORA
LNRK1       0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.4/    5.2/    6.3/    6.9

:N FK SOLOMON R
GDEK1       2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    5.3/    7.9/    9.8/   13.3

:BOW CR
SKTK1       4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    5.0/    7.2/    8.2/   11.0
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 03/02/2024  - 05/31/2024

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:SMOKY HILL R
OKYK1       3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9

:HACKBERRY CR
GOVK1       4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1

:SMOKY HILL R
ARNK1       0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0
SCSK1       2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0

:BIG CR
ELLK1       9.4/    9.4/    9.4/    9.4/    9.4/    9.4/    9.4
HYSK1       0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0

:SMOKY HILL R
RSLK1       3.6/    3.5/    3.3/    2.8/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0
ELWK1       1.3/    1.3/    1.1/    1.1/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0

:SALINE R
WAAK1       2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1
RUSK1       3.6/    3.4/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2

:LENORA
LNRK1       0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0

:N FK SOLOMON R
GDEK1       2.2/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1/    2.0/    0.1/    0.0

:BOW CR
SKTK1       4.2/    4.1/    4.1/    4.0/    3.9/    3.8/    3.8



:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  03/02/2024  - 05/31/2024

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:S FK REPUBLICAN R AT BENKELMAN NE
BEKN1               9.0  11.0  13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ARIKAREE R AT HAIGLER NE
HAIN1              12.0  14.0  16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT BENKELMAN NE 1SW
BENN1               7.0   9.0  11.0     7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT STRATTON NE
STTN1              11.0  13.0  15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FRENCHMAN CR AT PALISADE NE
PALN1               7.0   8.0   9.0    12   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:STINKING WATER CR AT PALISADE NE 2NW
PASN1              10.0  11.0  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FRENCHMAN CR AT CULBERTSON NE
CULN1               8.0  10.0  12.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:DRIFTWOOD CR AT MCCOOK NE 4SW
MCKN1              17.0  19.0  21.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT MCCOOK NE 1SE
MKRN1               9.0  11.0  13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT CAMBRIDGE NE 1E
CAMN1               9.0  10.0  16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT ORLEANS NE 2W
ORNN1               9.0  11.0  13.0    15   20    6   15   <5    9
:BEAVER CR AT LUDELL KS
LDLK1               9.0  11.0  13.0    30   32    6    7   <5   <5
:BEAVER CR AT CEDAR BLUFFS KS
CDBK1              16.0  18.0  20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CREEK AT BEAVER CITY 4WSW
BEVN1              11.0  13.0  15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SAPPA CR AT OBERLIN KS 1SW
OBNK1              11.0  14.0  17.0    21   22   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SAPPA CR AT NORCATUR KS 15NE
NCRK1              17.0  20.0  22.0     6    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SAPPA CR AT BEAVER CITY NE 7SW
BVSN1              16.0  18.0  20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SAPPA CR AT STAMFORD NE 4E
STMN1              19.0  22.0  26.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PRAIRIE DOG CR AT WOODRUFF KS 3WSW
WDRK1              19.0  24.0  30.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 03/02/2024  - 05/31/2024

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:S FK REPUBLICAN R
BEKN1       1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.7/    3.2/    5.2/    5.3

:ARIKAREE R
HAIN1       7.3/    7.3/    7.3/    7.6/    9.1/   10.1/   10.6

:REPUBLICAN R
BENN1       4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    5.6/    6.7/    7.2
STTN1       6.8/    6.8/    6.8/    6.9/    8.4/    9.9/   10.7

:FRENCHMAN CR
PALN1       3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    4.0/    5.0/    7.1/    7.5

:STINKING WATER CR
PASN1       2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    3.2/    3.7/    5.5/    6.4

:FRENCHMAN CR
CULN1       3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.4/    4.0/    6.2/    7.2

:DRIFTWOOD CR
MCKN1       2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    7.0/    9.9/   14.4/   15.0

:REPUBLICAN R
MKRN1       3.6/    3.6/    3.7/    5.2/    6.4/    7.9/    8.0
CAMN1       1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    2.8/    4.1/    6.6/    7.9
ORNN1       1.2/    1.2/    1.9/    3.3/    6.6/    9.7/   11.7

:BEAVER CR
LDLK1       3.6/    3.6/    3.8/    5.1/    9.5/   10.3/   11.0
CDBK1       2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    3.9/    8.5/   10.0/   11.3

:BEAVER CREEK
BEVN1       2.4/    2.6/    3.0/    3.7/    7.7/    9.5/    9.9

:SAPPA CR
OBNK1       2.6/    2.8/    3.4/    5.8/    9.8/   12.9/   13.8
NCRK1       4.0/    4.3/    5.1/    6.4/   13.3/   16.4/   17.1
BVSN1       2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    3.3/    9.1/   11.4/   12.6
STMN1       8.2/    8.2/    8.2/    8.7/   11.7/   13.9/   14.4

:PRAIRIE DOG CR
WDRK1       1.4/    1.4/    4.3/    7.0/   10.3/   13.9/   17.9
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 03/02/2024  - 05/31/2024

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:S FK REPUBLICAN R
BEKN1       1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5

:ARIKAREE R
HAIN1       6.9/    6.9/    6.9/    6.9/    6.9/    6.9/    6.9

:REPUBLICAN R
BENN1       3.6/    3.4/    3.2/    3.1/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0
STTN1       5.7/    5.4/    5.2/    5.1/    5.0/    4.9/    4.9

:FRENCHMAN CR
PALN1       3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4

:STINKING WATER CR
PASN1       2.5/    2.4/    2.3/    2.1/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0

:FRENCHMAN CR
CULN1       2.2/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1

:DRIFTWOOD CR
MCKN1       2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4

:REPUBLICAN R
MKRN1       3.1/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9
CAMN1       1.1/    1.0/    0.9/    0.8/    0.8/    0.8/    0.8
ORNN1       0.8/    0.7/    0.5/    0.3/    0.2/    0.2/    0.2

:BEAVER CR
LDLK1       2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0
CDBK1       2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5

:BEAVER CREEK
BEVN1       1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5

:SAPPA CR
OBNK1       2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0
NCRK1       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0
BVSN1       2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8
STMN1       8.1/    8.1/    8.1/    8.1/    8.1/    8.1/    8.1

:PRAIRIE DOG CR
WDRK1       1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts
are part of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic
prediction service.

The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued on
14 March 2024.

$$


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