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000
FXUS64 KHGX 152033
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
333 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Warm/cloudy weather will continue through the short term with per-
haps a slight chance of rain for our northernmost counties during
the overnight hours tonight on into Tue morning. A developing low-
level jet coupled with weak forcing along a cold front look to be
the main ingredients for these low POPs...mainly across the Piney
Woods. Elsewhere, development should be limited by the strong cap
in place over the rest of the CWA. This front is then expected to
stall just north of (to just along our northern FA) as the flow a-
loft becomes more zonal. The warm S/SW flow at the mid levels com-
bined with steady S/SE winds at the surface will help to warm the
high temperatures tomorrow into the lower and mid 80s...even with
persistent clouds streaming in from the west. Lows tonight and to-
morrow will be in the lower 70s. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Southeast Texas will remain on the northwest periphery of mid/upper
ridging generally centered over the Bay of Campeche. Despite a
persistent onshore flow in place, low level capping should keep rain
chances on the low side. Can`t rule out some isolated activity
across n/nw parts of the region at times in association with any
stronger impulses in the upper flow that manage to pass though.

Heading into Friday, a weak cold front will sag near, or into,
northern parts of the area then stall and meander about the area
into Saturday. Ridging to the south will begin flattening and the
capping situation becomes less hostile. Combination of the two,
along with passing embedded upper disturbances should lead to
slightly better shots of scattered precipitation.

By Saturday night, the front should get some upstream support and
begin a push southward. As this occurs, showers and thunderstorm
chances become likely across most of the CWA...eventually coming to
an end by mid day Sunday as the front moves offshore and to the
east.

Temperature-wise...moist flow off the Gulf will make it tough to get
overnight lows below 70 thru Saturday. And with warm starts to the
days, daytime highs shouldn`t have much trouble reaching at least
the mid 80s & perhaps a bit higher if we get some extended breaks of
sunshine. It won`t be until after the frontal passage that we`ll see
temps trend back down toward seasonal norms. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Not a whole lot of changes were made with the 18Z TAF package as MVFR
ceilings remain in place through the rest of this afternoon. However,
we could see brief breaks at some terminals to VFR during the late af-
ternoon/early evening time frame (22-01Z) before CIGS fall once again.
With the low-level jet expected to form tonight/overnight, CIGS could
remain mostly around MVFR through sunrise, with some IFR possible for
our usual suspects (notably CXO). S/SE winds will continue to pick up
through the afternoon to 10-15kts with gusts near 25kts. This onshore
flow will lower a bit tonight (S/SE 4-9kts) but there could be enough
mixing just above the surface for an occasional gust (15-20kts). 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Southeast winds 15-20kt and seas building to 4-6ft can be expected
tonight and Tuesday. Will maintain the caution flags through the
night (probably again tomorrow too). Risk of rip currents on area
beaches will be on an upward climb and we may eventually need to put
a statement out for those too. Wind speeds and seas will slightly
diminish during the second part of the work week. With the warm,
moist airmass becoming situated over the slightly cooler shelf
waters, wouldn`t be surprised to see some periods of 2-6nm
visibilities in fog/haze during the Wed night-Sat timeframe.
Doubtful we`ll see dense fog, however. The next front, and
associated showers and thunderstorms, should push off the coast late
Saturday night or early Sunday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  83  72  86 /  10  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)  71  85  73  87 /   0  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  71  78  71  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$