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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221743
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1243 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Modest changes made to the forecast for this afternoon, mainly to
better handle showers being observed over the Gulf of Mexico. This
update is mostly applicable to marine interests, with slim to no
chance for rain over land.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Dry/quiet weather will prevail across SE TX through the short-term
even as surface high pressure begins drifting east with time. This
will allow for the light NE/E winds today to gradually become more
E/SE by tomorrow. And with mostly clear skies remaining place high
temperatures will be in the lower 70s across the CWA today, then a
bit warmer tomorrow in the mid to upper 70s. Tonight will continue
to be cool as lows fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s for inland
areas...lower 60s at the immediate coast. With light onshore winds
prevailing by tomorrow night, lows will be warmer in the lower and
mid 60s. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A persistent onshore wind regime will continue through the remainder
of the week and into the weekend, with this surface wind pattern
promoting a gradual increase in both temperatures and moisture over
this time period. For Wednesday and Thursday, this will result in
highs in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows rising to around 70
for most of the area. By Friday, global models continue to depict
entrance of a robust midlevel trough into the Central Rockies, which
will induce strong lee cyclogenesis as the associated surface system
deepens to near or below 990mb. The resultant surface pressure
gradient over the middle third of the CONUS will become quite strong,
increasing WAA/moist advection to SE TX. As such, we should see
highs heading into the weekend approach the mid to upper 80s, with a
few spots possibly breaking the 90 mark for the first time in quite a
while. Surface dew points in the 70s will become widespread by late
Friday, and WBGT values throughout the weekend will max out in the
lower 80s. As with all early season periods of elevated temperatures,
those who are not acclimated to the heat should plan to take safety
precautions when doing any strenuous activity outdoors.

Rainfall chances over the long term period will largely be limited,
as a weak surface boundary associated with the aforementioned
surface low looks to stall to our north. This will result in a low
but nonzero chance of showers and storms for the northern zones
beginning on Friday. Otherwise, rainfall will be limited to isolated
weak diurnal activity.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Focus for this TAF cycle remains on winds, as light,
northeasterlies this morning are veering through easterly on their
way to south/southeasterly. A smattering of Gulf clouds may push
to LBX and GLS this afternoon, but only scraps of high clouds for
most sites. After a period of light, VRB winds overnight, onshore
winds to around 10 knots return late tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Winds continue to sit near 20 knots along the coast and offshore,
and as such a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM CT.
These winds should diminish during the late morning/early afternoon
as the wind direction shifts to the SE. Strengthening onshore flow is
expected throughout the remainder of the week and into the weekend,
with advisories likely to be needed once again on Friday. Rainfall
chances will remain low over at least the next 5 days.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  52  78  64 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  73  54  79  65 /  10   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  70  64  75  70 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Cady