Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 260535
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
135 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure continues with more seasonable temperatures
for Tuesday. Rain chances will return with the next cold front
Wednesday into Thursday. Dry high pressure then builds in behind
the cold front Friday with a warming trend through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes coming down the track at the 1 AM EDT update.
Updated 06Z TAF discussion found below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Surface pressure pattern has changed little today and basically
remains in place through tonight thus conditions will be quite
similar. However with just a touch of airmass modification...high
cloudiness and some wind at the surface (once again) temperatures
should check in a touch higher. This should keep the agriculture
community somewhat safe with regards to frost and certainly
freeze issues. Further warming should take place Tuesday as the
pattern begins transition to more of a return flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Main focus this period is on approaching mid-level energy and
developing sfc low pressure bringing high chances for rain.
Categorical PoPs have been introduced based on the very high
confidence for rain, with moderate to heavy rain possible as
well - forecasting totals of 1-3 inches, with the heaviest rain
expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning during the time
of greatest dynamics and moisture flux into the area. Some
model discrepancy then over when the rain ends, but in general
should see a drying trend from west to east Thursday afternoon
and evening. Instability looks meager overall, but still can`t
rule out a few rumbles of thunder especially near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry weather expected for the duration of the long term period
with broad sfc high pressure over the SE states. This in tandem
with a slight rise in low-level thickness values will lead to
increasing temps late this week into the weekend...up to the
mid 70s Saturday then upr 70s Sunday, with W/SW flow the norm
under mostly sunny/clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Predominantly VFR throughout the 06Z TAF period. NE flow
gradually shifts to onshore flow by early this afternoon.
The exception might be some slight onshore flow early this
morning, which could cause some brief MVFR ceilings at the
coastal terminals, though confidence is low here. Elsewhere,
increased ceilings should develop tonight ahead of the next
system, and MVFR looks to hit KFLO and KLBT towards the end of
the period.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions likely Wednesday into
Thursday with increasing rain chances. Forecast dries out late
Thursday night and high pressure returns throughout the weekend,
allowing for widespread VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Surface pressure pattern remains in place
this afternoon and overnight with the northeast flow. Winds and
seas will very gradually decrease so the small craft advisory
remains in place. A slow transition to a return/onshore flow
offers up lower winds and seas Tuesday.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...A break in the SCA conditions
Tuesday night through Wednesday night with 10-15 kt SE flow over
the coastal waters with a weak ridge of high pressure well
offshore. Sfc low pressure will then develop immediately over
the area on Thursday, with SCA conditions in winds likely to
follow late Thursday into Thursday night in the NW flow
following the sfc low pushing off to the east. Somewhat
improving marine conditions expected towards the end of the week
as sfc high pressure builds over the SE states.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MAS/SHK


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