Text Products for FWS Issued by ILM

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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FNUS72 KILM 181008
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Hasty Point RX...U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
608 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures and dry downslope flow will lead to low
RH values today, mitigated slightly near the coast due to the sea
breeze. The sea breeze will move through the burn site around 3-4 pm,
with winds moving around to the SW-S and gusting near 15 mph. Rain chances
increase Friday as a cold front moves through, stalling in the area
for the weekend and maintaining elevated rain chances.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the south
                    around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 14 mph.
Max vent rate.......Fair (52407 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Max ADI.............62.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........36  21  5   5   6   6   6   6   7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............71  75  78  81  83  84  85  85  84
RH..............77  67  59  52  47  43  43  43  46
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   6   6   6   6   7   7
20 FT wind gust.8   9   10  10  10  10  12  14  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.8 3.0 4.1 4.8 5.1 4.8 4.4 2.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
Transp wind spd.13  13  14  13  10  9   9   9   10
LVORI...........4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.............14  29  51  62  58  54  51  48  30
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.11  22  41  52  50  47  44  41  23
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...004 004 004 004 004 999 999 999 994

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 13 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (4278 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........6.
Min ADI.............5.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........8   9   11  8   5   3   4   6   8   10  12  15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............82  79  75  72  70  69  68  67  66  65  65  64
RH..............49  58  69  73  77  81  83  85  86  88  90  93
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   6   6   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.11  11  10  9   8   7   7   7   7   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  S   SW  SW  SW  W   SW  W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.12  13  13  12  12  12  13  13  12  13  12  10
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   6   6
ADI.............14  8   6   5   5   5   6   6   5   6   5   5
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.11  6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   5   4
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...994 994 998 998 998 999 999 999 996 996 996 995

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers late in the afternoon. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 6 to 7 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 10 mph shifting to the north around 9
                    mph early in the afternoon, then shifting to
                    the west around 10 mph early in the afternoon
                    shifting to the south 12 to 13 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Marginal (34561 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........6.
Max ADI.............44.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........14     13     13     21     37     46
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   S CHC
Temp............64     66     76     82     82     81
RH..............94     88     69     57     55     60
20 ft wind......SW 3   W 2    NW 3   W 4    SE 7   SE 7
20 ft wind gust.5      3      5      8      11     12
Mix hgt (ft)....400    400    1500   3800   2500   1800
Transport wind..W 10   W 9    W 8    N 9    S 12   S 13
LVORI...........6      5      3      1      1      2
ADI.............5      9      15     44     36     28
Haines index....5      5      5      5      4      4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.4      4      12     35     28     22
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR
Sfc pres (in)...29.95  30.01  30.01  30.01  29.97  29.97

$$
Forecaster...Warner
Requested by...Adam McCullough
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411299.0/ILM
.DELDT 04/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL adam_mccullough@fws.gov