255
FXUS63 KILX 132024
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
324 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small
  hail this afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not likely.

- Showers and storms are expected (70-90% chance) mainly this
  afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Expect generally 0.50 to 1
  inch with 10-30% chance of over 1.5 inches.

- Another system will bring rain to the area Thursday into Friday,
  with generally another 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

The expected upper level low is currently in eastern KS according
the latest analysis...but continues to push eastward towards IL.
We`ve seen some showers and weak thunderstorms across central IL
this afternoon and expect coverage to increase through late
afternoon and into the early evening hours. Deep shear remains
weak at <20 kts with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. The latest RAP model
has a pocket or two of MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg this afternoon from
4-7 PM when storms will likely be the strongest. A few near-severe
storms will be possible with hail close to 1" and/or wind gusts
nearing 60 mph, but generally, severe storms are unlikely this
afternoon/evening.

Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will be possible through
the night as a mid level vort lobe rotates northward around the
approaching system. Another lobe rotates north- northwestward
tomorrow morning with the low moving from eastern MO into southern
IL during the day Tuesday. Expect showers and embedded
thunderstorms to continue Tuesday, with the strongest storms south
of I-72. With MUCAPE generally around 500 J/kg up to 1000 J/kg
and deep share around 20-30 kts, severe potential is limited once
again tomorrow. Rainfall will likely be in the 0.5 to 1" range
across much of the area, with a 10-30% chance of over 1.5" for the
Mon-Tue total.

The area sees weak ridging on Wednesday, providing a break from
precipitation. However, rain chances return on Thursday and into
Friday as the next upper wave moves through the region. Not too
excited about severe weather chances with this second system at
this time since the NBM has CAPEs at 500 J/kg or less along with
25 kts of deep shear. However, the latest ECMWF is showing some
higher CAPEs for Friday, so will need to watch how this one
evolves. Generally expecting around 0.5" of rain with this system.

Weak ridging in NW flow aloft is expected for Saturday with an
upper wave passing to the north on Sunday. We`ll see a surge of
warm air ahead of the associated surface low pressure system,
bringing highs into the 80s for the weekend. More shower and
thunderstorm activity is possible by Sunday with the frontal
system and upper support. We`re still too far out to speculate on
severe potential with this one.

Knutsvig

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to increase across the
region today. The best chance for a TS at a terminal appears to be
mid afternoon through the early evening hours and have included
this thinking in a TEMPO in the TAFs. Thunder chances continue
overnight and through 18Z tomorrow, but did not include at this
time since they will be hard to time this far out. Still, SHRA
chances will exist through much of the period. CIGs fall later
tonight through MVFR to IFR along with vis generally in the 3-5 mi
range as well.

Knutsvig

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$