000
FXUS63 KILX 192033
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
333 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds with gusts of 20 to 30 mph will occur
  again on Saturday.

- Morning low temperatures will bottom out in the 30s the next
  three nights, posing a threat to sensitive vegetation especially
  overnight Saturday night and early Sunday morning. There is a
  50-80% chance of temperatures near freezing at dawn Sunday north
  of Peoria.

- Next chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to occur
  overnight Monday night into Tuesday evening and overnight Thu
  night and next Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Patches of mid level clouds were over central IL north of I-70 and
streaming eastward. Models show some mid/high clouds affecting
central and southern CWA longer tonight while northern CWA clears
out sooner and to be cooler tonight. Lows overnight range from mid
30s northern CWA to around 40F in southeast IL. Think NW winds
will be strong enough tonight to limit frost formation to patchy
levels in our north. Freeze warnings overnight are nw of the Quad
Cities.

Large Canadian high pressure over Alberta and ridging into
central/sw IL through Saturday to keep breezy nw winds gusting
20-30 mph over CWA again on Saturday. Models show more scattered
cumulus clouds developing from the north by Sat afternoon so skies
become partly sunny, with mostly cloudy skies in northern IL.
Highs Sat only in the low to mid 50s, coolest northern CWA. Clouds
to decrease from nw to se overnight Sat night and winds to become
lighter than tonight. This will allow cooler lows in the low to
mid 30s and widespread frost likely developing during overnight
Sat night and early Sunday morning. Will likely need a frost
advisory over CWA and maybe even a freeze warning northern CWA
where lows approach 32F. The growing season started about a week
across across central IL. The DESI model projection show 50-80%
chance of temperatures near freezing north of Peoria at dawn
Sunday.

High pressure building closer to IL on Sunday providing ample
sunshine and not as breezy with nw winds as we have today and
Saturday. Highs Sunday in the upper 50s and still below normal
highs 65 to 70 for this time of year. Another cool night Sunday
night with fair skies and light winds and lows in the mid to upper
30s with patchy frost likely overnight Sunday night and early Mon
morning.

A northern stream storm system off the Pacific NW coast to track
into the northern Plains Monday afternoon and into the Great Lakes
and southeast Canada by sunset Tue, and pull a cold front se into
central IL. Clouds increase from the nw over central IL Mon
afternoon with increasing sw winds to breezy levels by Monday
afternoon giving more seasonable highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Will see 20-40% chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms
over central IL from I-72 north overnight Monday night. Best
chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms is Tue with se IL
likely not see much rain until Tue afternoon. Shower chances
diminish from the nw during Tue evening. Severe threat appears
quite low with this system due to lack of instability (low CAPES)
since deeper moisture is south of IL. Highs Tue back in the mid to
upper 60s.

Fair wx expected overnight Tue night through Thu as Canadian high
pressure builds into Ontario Province Wed and ridging down into
IL. A bit cooler highs Wed in the lower 60s with some mid 60s
south of I-70 and sw CWA. Cool lows Wed night in the upper 30s to
around 40F, coolest ne CWA and areas from I-74 ne could see patchy
frost around dawn Thu. Next wx system to move into the central US
and bring chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight Thu night
and Friday. More instability expected with this system along with
wind shear by Fri afternoon and will need to monitor storms then.
Yet another stronger storm system approaching Sunday/Apr 28 with
more thunderstorms possible.

07

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to continue across the central IL
airports through 18Z/1 pm Saturday, as large 1035 mb Canadian
high pressure over north central MT ridges into central/sw IL.
Patches of broken mid level clouds with bases of 10-12k ft to
continue to stream eastward across central Il through early
evening, then scatter out and get shunted southward during
mid/late evening. Breezy NW winds 10-18 kts with gusts 20-27 kts
this afternoon to veer more westerly and diminish under 10 kts
around sunset. NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts 18-24 kts return
between 13-15Z Saturday.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$