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000
FXUS63 KIND 251425
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST OF INDIANA TODAY
AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COOL AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH INDIANA FROM THE
WEST ON SUNDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES IN THE
REGION ALSO. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE WARM FRONT LINGERS IN THE AREA AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS GETTING WARMER
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

INCREASED SKY COVER AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. DID ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS
SATELLITE SHOWS MID CLOUD AS ERODED SOME THERE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.

WITH THE INCREASED SKY COVER DID LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME. WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS SITUATION EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS ARE HELPING ERODE ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM ILLINOIS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY RETURNS NOW APPROACHING THE STATE LINE HAVE ADDED
SPRINKLES TO THE WEST THIS MORNING. AS REMNANTS OF MCS ACROSS
WESTERN ILLINOIS MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANDED SPRINKLE MENTION
ACROSS THE AREA. MAY HAVE TO ADD ACTUAL CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW FAST MCS DISSIPATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SEVERAL RIDGE RIDING SHORT WAVE
WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER LEVELS SHOW A WARM FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE STATE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH A SATURATED COLUMN AT
THAT TIME. 305K GFS ISENTROPIC SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE PUSHING INTO THE
SW PARTS OF INDIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE WHOLE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES GET QUITE MOIST
REACHING VALUES IN EXCESS OF 6 G/KG. HOWEVER QUESTIONS REMAIN AS
TO WHERE THIS MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FROM...SINCE THE GULF REMAINS
BLOCKED. THUS GIVEN THE FACTORS THAT ARE AVAILABLE TO PROVIDE
FORCING WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE ALBEIT WEAK FORCING...ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS
AND STICK CLOSE ON HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE EAST COAST BY NEXT FRIDAY.
APPEARS THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TO RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD MORE AGGRESSIVELY OVER THE AREA AS DEEP TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP
OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ENSEMBLES
SUGGESTING LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WILL GO DRY DURING THOSE PERIODS.

BY NEXT FRIDAY...SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES PUSH THE RIDGE FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO BRING IN A PRECIPITATION THREAT FROM A SYSTEM THAT MAY BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL KEEP NEXT FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW...BUT POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN THE FUTURE IF THINGS TREND
TOWARDS THE WETTER SOLUTIONS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251430Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

KIND TAF LOOKS GOOD. COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CEILINGS ABOVE 050...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...SURFACE WINDS AT OR
BELOW 7 KTS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 260000Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50

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