National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KIND 200702
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

A LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
EAST AND WEAKENS WITH TIME. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

MODELS STILL HINTING AT A WEAK BOUNDARY ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS
SO...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE LATER TODAY WITH LIFTED
INDEXES AROUND -7/-8 AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY...AND ALONG WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH LIKE A MID SUMMER/S DAY. LEANED CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MET FOR HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

MODELS PROGGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE FOR TONIGHT...AS MUCH OF THE CWA IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK. BUMPED UP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO LIKELY BASED ON GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED WITH ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION MAKING THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT HARD TO FIND.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS MODELS HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD
FRONT TO WED...RATHER THAN WED NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN FOR
WED...BUT BEFORE AND AFTER THAT CANNOT REALLY PIN DOWN ANY PERIODS
TO CONCENTRATE HIGH POPS ON...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH HIGH
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THRU TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

END OF AN ACTIVE WX PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA AND A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. NOT OVERLY
PLEASED WITH ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION POPS BEYOND THURSDAY AS IT
WANTS TO INTRODUCE ANOTHER LENGTHY PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...EVEN WITH THIS
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AND LIMITED IF ANY UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE GONE DRY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ON.

ON TEMPS...EXPECTING NUMBERS CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY BELOW AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IF DRY FORECAST
HOLDS...COULD MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEEKEND ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT HUF AND EVEN
MORE SO BMG COULD SEE SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY AFTER 08Z AS
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THERE LATE THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WERE ONLY 3 KNOTS AT BMG. WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT
SOME LOW STRATUS AS MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET
OVERNIGHT AND MVFR FOG AT HUF AFTER 08Z AND MVFR AND TEMPO IFR AT
BMG. THE OTHER SITES SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FOG WITH WINDS REMAINING 5
KNOTS OR MORE AND WITH DEW POINTS A TAD LOWER IN THE MID 60S.

COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND
BEING SO FAR OUT...WILL HOLD OFF ON VCTS UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY
AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER THEN. SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL VFR CU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TOMORROW WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 23 KNOTS AFTER 14Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS