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000
FXUS63 KIND 181637
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1235 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK A LARGE TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING
WARMER AIR FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS OF
STORMY WEATHER MONDAY INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 956 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY LATE THIS MORNING. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWING ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER. A FEW SHRA WERE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THUS WITH LITTLE HELP
FROM HEATING TODAY...HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER. ALSO
WITHOUT MUCH HELP IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED...CONFIDENCE FOR AFTERNOON TSRA IS DIMINISHING. LINGERING
SHRA WITH ISOLATED THUNDER SEEMS THE WAY TO GO RIGHT NOW AS THE
MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE THE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BE INFILTRATING BACK INTO THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING...NOT BEFORE A FEW SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST. WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL ATTEMPT TO
CLEAR OUT...BUT SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. POSSIBLY
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPS
STILL LOOK QUITE WARM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN A BIT OF A
DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW
HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY ONE MAIN SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING EXTREMELY SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MIDATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE AREA WILL MERIT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS MOST ALL PERIODS THROUGH
THE LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME LIKELIES LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS WELL AND ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE
REQUIRED.

TEMPS INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOULD BE GRADUALLY COOLING BACK DOWN
TO NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY LATE IN THE WEEK
AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REACHED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
SO EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY THEN. SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE HANGING
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL...WHICH MAY AID IN DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. DUE
TO EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH SCATTERED CB/S 181900Z-190100Z. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS/GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HEAVIER CELLS. CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASES 020-030.

OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...CEILINGS GENERALLY ABOVE 050 WITH NO WIND
ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. AREAS MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 190500Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

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