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000
FXUS63 KIND 161641
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1240 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF TERRE HAUTE TO NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS TO
NEAR NEW CASTLE. SHOWERS WERE LINGERING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF
THAT BOUNDARY WHILE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ON THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES TODAY WITH EASILY
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE OF 1K-2K AVAILABLE ALSO. THUS HAVE INCREASE
POPS IN SEVERAL AREAS THIS MORNING BASED UPON RECENT RADAR TRENDS.
ADDITIONAL UPDATES MAY BE NEED SOON SHOULD COVERAGE CONTINUE TO
EXPAND...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY. ONGOING TEMP FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH
THE FRONT STALLED NEAR THE AREA AND VARIOUS WAVES MOVING ALONG IT
KEPT CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH THESE WAVES COMING
OUT OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST TRENDED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE ENHANCED FORCING. GENERALLY USED A GUIDANCE
AVERAGE FOR POPS WHICH TRENDED LOWER AT NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
ALSO TRENDED LOWER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA AND UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN MOMENTARILY.

FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGHT A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WORKED WELL FOR A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGING AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
KENTUCKY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST SUNDAY WITH
POSSIBLE CHANCE FAR SOUTHEAST.  SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WE
WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A COLD
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MOVE TO OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TO OHIO BY DAY 7. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY CATEGORY
BY TUESDAY WHICH GOES WELL TO ALL BLEND POPS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WILL GO CLOSER TO WARMER MEX MOS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.  I SUSPECT THERE MAY BE TOO
MUCH WEIGHTING TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY IN THIS PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF SOME TUESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP AND EVEN MORE WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. HOWEVER ALL
BLEND TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO COOL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE AND A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE THAT APPEARS TO BE MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AXIS IS SHIFTING
SOUTH OF KIND...SO EXPECTING THE HIGHEST THREAT OF A DIRECT
CONVECTIVE IMPACT WILL BE AT KHUF/KBMG...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT
KIND. DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A CONVECTIVE THREAT AT KLAF
AS FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THAT AREA.
OVERALL...CONVECTION SHOULD PEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND BY 162000Z-162100Z AS VORTICITY CENTER MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY SHIFTING
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASES
025-030.

OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...CEILINGS GENERALLY ABOVE 050. COULD BE SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP DUE TO FOG TOWARDS
170600Z...ESPECIALLY OVER KHUF/KBMG WHERE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JAS

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