National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KIND 170136
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
934 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SAGS TO THE OHIO RIVER. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

DIFFUSE FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AT THIS
TIME...WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT HAVEN/T BEEN ABLE TO LAST ALL THAT LONG.

SOME OF THE FINER SCALE MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN VERY WEAK FLOW AT 850MB AND NO UPPER AIR
TRIGGER...THINK IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL ISOLATED AND
BRIEF IN NATURE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

CONSIDERING THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS...COUPLED WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS...AND SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
FRONT...THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT. WILL
ADD THIS TO THE FORECAST.

LOWS TONIGHT STILL LOOK OK...SO NO CHANGES THERE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER REMAINED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WAS
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND WAS DRIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRYING
COLUMN TONIGHT AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT.
305K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME WEAK LIFT REMAINING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO KEEP
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT ALSO PROVIDE SHOW SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING ALOFT. THUS GIVEN OUR RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS EJECTING A FEW
SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

GFS PUSHES THE FIRST AND WEAKER SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST COLUMN
REMAINS DRY FOR MUCH OF MONDAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LINGERING COOL FRONT
BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVERGENCE. THUS WILL KEEP
SOME AFTERNOON POPS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MAVMOS HIGHS.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY
EVENING. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD SATURATION THROUGH
THE COLUMN. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE WITH THE MAVMOS POPS AT THIS
TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE. AGAIN GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP ALONG WITH MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS LOWS.

A SECOND...STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY. ONCE
AGAIN A MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH
DEW POINTS OF 60+. AGAIN LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SHOW SOME LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME LIMITED
CAPE. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHC POPS IN FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF COOL
FRONT. AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...WILL SLOWLY TAPER POPS LOWER. AGAIN WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN ON TUESDAY WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A DRY COLUMN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. THUS WILL RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD TEMPERATURES WARM
UNDER GOOD WARM ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. RIDGE
APPEARS TO WEAKEN/BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND TO ALLOW A FEW
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH AND POSSIBLY INITIATE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL EARLY IN THE FORECAST.
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS WELL SO DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION TOO MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA
IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AS HEATING ENDS. THUS...EXPECT NO FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT THAT CLEARING WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...OVER AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WILL CARRY MVFR FOG ALL SITES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE OUTLYING
SITES DROPPING INTO IFR CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY BMG WHICH IS
HISTORICALLY A FOGGY SITE...BUT CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY TOOLS
INDICATE MVFR IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE LIKELY THAN IFR CONSIDERING THE
TIME OF YEAR AND EXPECTED WIND CONDITIONS...AND SREF PROBABILITIES
FOR IFR ARE LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING AND
REEVALUATE AT 06Z IF NEEDED.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/JAS
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS