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000
FXUS63 KIND 170644
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
244 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A SLOW MOVING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
START THE WEEKEND ON A WET NOTE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEPART THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...HOWEVER A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON POP UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SOME
BANDING OF MID CLOUD NEAR FRONT THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS REST OF THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY AS DAY WEARS
ON AND WILL ADDRESS THIS IN NEXT UPDATE. OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST INTO DAYTIME HOURS APPEARS PRETTY GOOD AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND WINDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.

GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY QUITE SLOWLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN MEANDERING IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. MEANWHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY HINT AT DEEPLY
SATURATED COLUMN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S
WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN
RAISE POPS AND GIVEN THE LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL TREND
HIGHS TOWARD EXPECTED PERSISTENCE.

ONCE AGAIN LINGERING MOISTURE...HEATING AND FORCING WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTION SET-UP CHANGES. ONCE AGAIN
FORCING FROM HEATING WILL WANE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN IDEAL POSITION AS IT SLOWLY PASSES ACROSS
INDIANA. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ALONG
WITH WARMER LOWS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FINALLY BEGIN TO HINT AT SOME DRYING WORKING
INTO THE COLUMN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL TREND POPS
LOWER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS FORCING AND MOISTURE
FINALLY BEINGS TO DEPART THE AREA BUT WILL STILL KEEP POPS CLOSE
TO MAVMOS FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING AND STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. MINIMAL
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OCCURS AS THE LOW DEPARTS AS YET ANOTHER
LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATE AND A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON REVEAL CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 G/KG.
THUS WILL KEEP MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING DRY...BUT
GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE AND ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL
INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS APPEAR SET TO CONTINUE INTO THE COMING WEEK.
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THEN VERY SLOWLY MAKE PROGRESS TO THE EAST DURING THE
WEEK. CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BUT BOUNDARIES WILL AT TIMES BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE
AREA AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK AT BEST. THUS...WHILE HAVE
MAINTAINED POPS IN ALL PERIODS BUT THE VERY END WHEN A SURFACE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE AREA...HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS
SLIGHTLY MOST PERIODS...AS LACK OF SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WHEN IT APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

TEMPS FROM INITIALIZATION APPEARED REASONABLE THROUGHOUT WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS. WARMTH SHOULD PEAK EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL
COOLDOWN IN THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

WAVY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF LAF LATE THIS EVENING
AS EVIDENCE BY DEW POINT RISING TO 59 THERE. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
FRONTAL POSITION NOT GREAT...BUT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN RESULT COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG AT LAF AFTER 08Z
IF THE FRONT STAYS WHERE IT IS. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP ANY PROLONGED IFR FOG. WILL...JUST GO WITH MVFR AND
TEMPO IFR AT BMG AND HUF 08Z-12Z AND ONLY TEMPO MVFR AT IND AND LAF.
WEAK WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA ALONG WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA
COULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...BUT
BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL SPARSE UNTIL AFTER 15Z WHEN INSTABILITY
INCREASE AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
BORDER.

SHOULD SEE VFR IN ANY CEILING TONIGHT...WITH BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
AFTER 15Z FRIDAY BASED ON SOUNDING LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL AND
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVELS FORECASTS.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z AND BECOME
LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...MK

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