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000
FXUS63 KIND 160433
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1233 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR DURATION OF
FORECAST PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT TIMES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

RADAR LOOP SHOWS A THIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING JUST NORTH OF
AND ALONG I 70 AT MIDNIGHT. THE LINE IS SINKING SOUTHEAST AROUND 30
MPH. ALSO OF NOTE IS SOME SCATTERED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH
OF THE LINE IN THE VICINITY OF FRANKFORT. IT APPEARS THE INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO IS DUE TO
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE FROM A WAVE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES RELATED TO THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER
WAVE PUSHING NORTH OUT OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM...WITH BOTH OF THESE
MEETING AND ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONT OVER
THE AREA. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL BE PULLED
OFF TO THE EAST AFTER 6Z AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE COVERAGE TO DECREASE
AND THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT TO SLOW AND THEN STALL. HAVE ADDED DETAIL
TO THE POP GRIDS TO CAPTURE THE LOCATION AND EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF
THE LINE AND CARRIED CHANCES TO THE NORTH FOR THE MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION THERE.

AS FAR AS THREATS ARE CONCERNED...HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF PEA SIZED
HAIL AND LIGHTNING AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT ONE CELL PULSING UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 1 INCH
HAIL...BUT THINK THAT WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.

MAINTAINED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AGAIN...NOTHING
SUBSTANTIAL IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO IGNITE ANY SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPMENT. A WAVE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AT BEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHLIGHTED THIS BY GOING WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...JUST PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FOR ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PATTERN.
SO...STUCK WITH ALLBLEND. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS OUR REGION.

PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT...REMNANTS OF UPPER CIRCULATIONS...OVER
UTAH AND OKLAHOMA TODAY...WILL HAVE MELDED INTO A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA WILL BE FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRI/SAT. MOST OF
THIS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
THUS LOWERED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN AND REDUCES RAIN CHANCES. HAVE NOT COMPLETELY
ELIMINATED RAIN THREAT SAT NGT/SUN SINCE MODELS DIFFER A BIT AND
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND SURFACE BOUNDARY KEEP LOW RAIN THREAT IN
PICTURE. WITH LOWERED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND BIT MORE SUNSHINE
UNDER BUILDING RIDGE...HAVE PUMPED MAX TEMPS SUNDAY UP TO MID 80S.

SYSTEM OFF WEST COAST TODAY CARVING OUT DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN WESTERN
US THAT CLOSES OFF ACROSS NRN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BRING NEXT
RAIN THREAT HERE. INITIAL THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY A BIT LOW AS
WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH ACROSS AREA INTO SOUTHERN GRTLKS. BY
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE
APPROACH AND BRING INCREASING RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
GRADUALLY RISE FROM LOW CHC POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO LIKELY POPS BY
WEDNESDAY. LIKEWISE...WITH STRONG WARM SRLY WINDS AHEAD OF PLAINS
SYSTEM AND EXPECTATION OF BIT MORE SUNSHINE...HAVE PUMPED MAXS AND
MINS A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESSENTIALLY LOWS IN MID
60S AND HIGHS NEAR/IN MID 80S UNTIL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 923 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

A FEW STORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR A DANVILLE...ILLINOIS TO MUNCIE
LINE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH...BUT THINK THEY WILL STAY TO THE
NORTH OF IND AND NOT IMPACT THE AIRPORT. SO...WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE TAFS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LAF CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY A CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED AND ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM AROUND LAF TO IND THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO FORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY LATE THIS EVENING BUT LIKELY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BEFORE FIRING UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL DROP OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND REMAIN
THAT WAY TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS
SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST EXCEPT AT LAF AND PERHAPS AT IND WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT LIES OUT.
WITH COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN DOUBT...WILL LEAVE
THEM OUT UNTIL AFTER 15Z TOMORROW WHEN ALL BUT LAF SHOULD SEE MORE
COVERAGE AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND FRONT REMAINS
IN THE AREA. FROM 15Z-00Z...WILL GO WITH PROB30 EXCEPT VCTS AT LAF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...MK

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