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000
FXUS63 KIND 222036
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
435 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDTED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SHOULD KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY BUT THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL DRY THINGS OUT INTO THE WEEKEND.
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST BREAKING DOWN AND A POSSIBLE PATTERN TRANSITION SETTING UP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN REBOUND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN INDIANA
WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM SOUTH OF
TERRE HAUTE TO NORTH OF LAFAYETTE AT 19Z. THIS LINE IS MOVING
NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH AND SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AT THAT
RATE...POSSIBLY STILL REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AT 0Z.
THERE ARE ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS
BEHIND THE LINE...BUT THESE ARE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD START
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. THUS WILL TREND POPS UP WITH THE LINE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BACK DOWN AFTER IT
PASSES. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER GOING IN THE EAST FOR A FEW HOURS
TONIGHT WITH TIMING OF THE LINE STILL PLACING IT NEARBY UNTIL AFTER
0Z. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE BETTER EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME STILL REMAIN WITH EAST HALF IN SLIGHT
RISK.

FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WENT NEAR CONSENSUS...WHICH WAS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN MAV OR MET...WITH BROKEN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AND COLD
ADVECTION NOT AMPING UP UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SO WILL GENERALLY USE A CONSENSUS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY
THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A VORT MAX WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THIS HAPPENS MORE IN THE MORNING IN
THE GFS AND A BIT LATER IN THE NAM. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING
THROUGH AS WELL...EXPECT TO SEE SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY WORKING INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE LATE MORNING TO
AFTERNOON SO ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THERE. BY EVENING THE AXIS
WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN
END.  DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. ONE CAVEAT
TO THIS IS THAT THE NAM IS SHOWING WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN MCS DEVELOPING
OVER MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND RIDING THE RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE GFS DOESN/T SHOW A SIMILAR FEATURE AND
THINK PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH A FEATURE THIS FAR OUT IS PRETTY SLIM.

FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY THOUGHT A MOS CONSENSUS SHOULD WORK OUT
FINE...WITH COLD ADVECTION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THEN RELATIVELY STABLE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FROM FRIDAY ON. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN
THE 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GOOD CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND MOS DERIVED FROM THEM. IN
PARTICULAR...ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE MEN PRODUCT IS QUITE LOW. NO
REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES IN CENTRAL REGION INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 222100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BIGGEST ISSUE IS THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE SOME OVER
THE ROUTES. WHERE THEY OCCUR EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES...AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER TIMING AND
LOCATIONS ARE SO UNCERTAIN I CANT EVEN JUSTIFY VCTS IN TAFS. I
WILL PUT IN VCSH BECAUSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

EXPECT AMENDMENTS AS THUNDERSTORM FORECAST BECOMES MORE DEFINITE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CEILINGS OF AT LEAST 35 HUNDRED FEET UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING WHEN THEY WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. VISIBILITIES OUTSIDE ANY PRECIPITATION P6SM.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
DROPPING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER DARK. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS DEVELOPING THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK/JH

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