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000
FXUS63 KIND 152027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR DURATION OF
FORECAST PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT TIMES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT UP TO THIS POINT
WITH ONLY A THIN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. WITHOUT ANY
SUBSTANTIAL ADDITIONAL LIFT TONIGHT...DECIDED TO PULL THE LIKELY
POPS THAT WERE IN THE GRIDS AND GO WITH CHANCE POPS. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE REALLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH...PUTTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR FOR TONIGHT.

TEMPS...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN...SO STUCK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT/S LOWS...WHICH IS INDICATING LOW TO MID
60S. CURRENTLY TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.

MAINTAINED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AGAIN...NOTHING
SUBSTANTIAL IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO IGNITE ANY SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPMENT. A WAVE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AT BEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHLIGHTED THIS BY GOING WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...JUST PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FOR ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PATTERN.
SO...STUCK WITH ALLBLEND. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS OUR REGION.

PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT...REMNANTS OF UPPER CIRCULATIONS...OVER
UTAH AND OKLAHOMA TODAY...WILL HAVE MELDED INTO A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA WILL BE FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRI/SAT. MOST OF
THIS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
THUS LOWERED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN AND REDUCES RAIN CHANCES. HAVE NOT COMPLETELY
ELIMINATED RAIN THREAT SAT NGT/SUN SINCE MODELS DIFFER A BIT AND
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND SURFACE BOUNDARY KEEP LOW RAIN THREAT IN
PICTURE. WITH LOWERED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND BIT MORE SUNSHINE
UNDER BUILDING RIDGE...HAVE PUMPED MAX TEMPS SUNDAY UP TO MID 80S.

SYSTEM OFF WEST COAST TODAY CARVING OUT DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN WESTERN
US THAT CLOSES OFF ACROSS NRN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BRING NEXT
RAIN THREAT HERE. INITIAL THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY A BIT LOW AS
WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH ACROSS AREA INTO SOUTHERN GRTLKS. BY
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE
APPROACH AND BRING INCREASING RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
GRADUALLY RISE FROM LOW CHC POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO LIKELY POPS BY
WEDNESDAY. LIKEWISE...WITH STRONG WARM SRLY WINDS AHEAD OF PLAINS
SYSTEM AND EXPECTATION OF BIT MORE SUNSHINE...HAVE PUMPED MAXS AND
MINS A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESSENTIALLY LOWS IN MID
60S AND HIGHS NEAR/IN MID 80S UNTIL COLD FRONT PUSSHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 152100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG AND GUSTY WIND 25012G22KT
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ENDING AROUND
152300Z.

NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH
BUT AS UPPER WIND SUPPORT AIDING THEM MOVES TO EAST COAST THE LINE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. EXPECT REMNANTS
OF THIS BAND WILL FLIRT WITH KLAF AT OUTSET OF TAFS BUT DIE BEFORE
IMPACTING KIND OR KHUF.

SECOND AREA OF WEAK UPPER SUPPORT COMING IN FROM MINNESOTA LATE
TODAY SHOULD INTERACT WITH SURFACE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY CONVERGING
WINDS. THIS SHOULD REKINDLE NEW THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS NEAR KLAF-KMIE LINE AFT 152200Z AND CONTINUE INTO EVENING
HOURS 160500Z. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA TO CONTINUE
BEYOND 160600Z BUT LIMITED FORCING AND TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/WHERE THIS COULD HAPPEN.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK/MK

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