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000
FXUS63 KIND 160827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND 850 MB WINDS
LESSEN. AFTER THAT...WILL SEE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THERE AND ENHANCES CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST
CHANCES WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE GETS CLOSER AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF IT. WHILE GFS QPF NUMBERS LOOK
OVERBLOWN /AS THEY WERE FOR YESTERDAY EVENING/ THE MAV GUIDANCE POPS
LOOK REASONABLE AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO THOSE. FOR HIGHS PICKED
THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION TRENDS
WHICH YIELDED LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON
MORE CONVECTION THERE AND CONVECTION BEGINNING EARLIER TO CUT OFF
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH
THE FRONT STALLED NEAR THE AREA AND VARIOUS WAVES MOVING ALONG IT
KEPT CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH THESE WAVES COMING
OUT OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST TRENDED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE ENHANCED FORCING. GENERALLY USED A GUIDANCE
AVERAGE FOR POPS WHICH TRENDED LOWER AT NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
ALSO TRENDED LOWER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA AND UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN MOMENTARILY.

FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGHT A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WORKED WELL FOR A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGING AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
KENTUCKY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST SUNDAY WITH
POSSIBLE CHANCE FAR SOUTHEAST.  SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WE
WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A COLD
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MOVE TO OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TO OHIO BY DAY 7. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY CATEGORY
BY TUESDAY WHICH GOES WELL TO ALL BLEND POPS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WILL GO CLOSER TO WARMER MEX MOS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.  I SUSPECT THERE MAY BE TOO
MUCH WEIGHTING TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY IN THIS PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF SOME TUESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP AND EVEN MORE WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. HOWEVER ALL
BLEND TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO COOL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70 TO NEAR KLAF.  THESE WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
MOVING ON TO THE EAST.  WILL MENTION TEMPO TSRA MAINLY KIND AND KLAF
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS.  AFTER THAT MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE
A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THEN...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP BY MIDDAY WITH DECENT
COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...THE FRONT
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND AN UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. FROM 15Z-00Z...WILL GO WITH PROB30 EXCEPT VCTS AT LAF.
AFTER 00Z...VCTS SHOULD SUFFICE AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXCEPT NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT AT LAF. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT
MVFR OR POSSIBLY WORSE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

EVEN WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...TAFS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK/JH

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