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000
FXUS63 KIND 191330
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
930 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL INDIANA BRINGING
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DIP IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY HIGHS WILL WARM BACK TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
FROM FRIDAY ON. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY SOME PATCHY MID CLOUD ACROSS THE AREA
NOW...AND SCATTERED CU STILL LOOK LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THOUGH. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
FORECASTS.

RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR.
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 11-12C ACROSS THE AREA WENT A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MAV NUMBERS. DAY WILL START OUT CLEAR BUT
TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB SO COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SO USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT PREFERRED COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST SHOULD SEE WARM ADVECTION RAMP UP AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. USED A
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY BUT WENT WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON
FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BREAKDOWN IN THE
RIDGE COULD TAKE PLACE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT
BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THUS KEEP
CENTRAL INDIANA DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS SUPPRESSES IT A LITTLE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS DAY 6 AND 7. WHILE THE
GEM AND OLD EURO DID NOT.  THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT
WILL BE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT MAY PRODUCE LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE 12Z EURO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH SATURDAY WITH LESSER
CHANCES TOWARDS END OF THE EXTENDED.  THE GFS INDICATED VERY LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BETTER
CHANCES ALL AREAS TOWARDS DAY 7.  700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY
8 TO 10 CELSIUS RANGE WOULD ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS...BUT MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.

WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.  SOME CASES THE ALL BLEND
MAX TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE A BIT TOO COOL AND LEANED CLOSER TO MEX
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE
A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE
REGION.  CU RULE INDICATES A LITTLE CU. EXPECT ONLY FEW CU AT KIND
AND KLAF AND SCT CU ELSEWHERE LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE EAST UP TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

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