Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 291647
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1247 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TODAY. THEN AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND ON INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT SOME BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO
GRIDS.  EVEN THOUGH AREA OF SHOWERS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT...THERE
WILL BE SOME INCREASE LATER TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING.  BUT OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO
HANDLE THIS WELL.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA LATER TODAY AND THEN EAST OF THE STATE BY
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING THIS
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO USED A BLEND FOR
POPS WHICH AMOUNTS TO LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SLIGHT
GREATER CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THESE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW MOVING THROUGH.

UNDERCUT MAVMOS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 70S (NORTHERN
COUNTIES) TO NEAR 80 (FAR SOUTH COUNTIES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS NOT OVERLY ROBUST WITH PRECIP CHANCES.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SO GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND DURING
THIS TIME AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. THE DISTURBANCES THAT INITIALLY MOVE THROUGH THIS
TROUGH DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT MUCH HIGHER THAN A LOW
CHANCE TO SCATTERED SHOWER AT THIS TIME. SO REALLY DID NOT STRAY FAR
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH MOST
OF THE LONG TERM. VARIOUS SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.

EACH DAY WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASH OUT. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES LEADS TO BROAD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS DO VARY ON CHANCES FOR RAIN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH GFS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN WHILE 12Z ECMWF MUCH LESS SO.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A RETURN TO IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF IND IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE
EAST DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR
INTRUDING INTO THE SYSTEM ON WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AS WE ARE SEEING IN WESTERN PARTS OF
INDIANA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP PLENTIFUL
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH INDIANA ON TUESDAY AS THE
NORTHWEST...TROUGH LIKE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS INDIANA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH AS CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIMING IN
PRECIP IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...JP

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