Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 290404
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1205 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN TO END THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EARLIER THIS EVENING REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL LATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR AND NAM STILL SHOW SOME STORMS
CURRENTLY OVER IOWA MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS AFTER 6Z AND KEPT BRINGING THEM INTO
THE NORTHWEST AFTER 8Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S LOOK GOOD BASED ON
DEWPOINTS RIGHT NOW IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S AND NO REAL ADVECTION
GOING ON. TIME HEIGHTS AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SREF
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FOCUS TURNS TO OTHER STORMS MOVING IN LATE. SOME MODELS SHOW STORMS
SURVIVING AND MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT ALONG A PREFRONTAL FEATURE.
WITH SOME WEAK LIFT AROUND...FEEL THAT THIS THREAT LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH
TO GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS 08-12Z.

WITH A HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE A MODEL BLEND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION OR ITS REMNANTS MAY
HELP INHIBIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF IT DIES QUICKLY OR
DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON STORMS.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY DECIDED TO KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY CATEGORY.
TRIED TO TIME HOURLY POPS SO THAT BEST CHANCE OCCURS LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST TO MID AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...BUT THESE
TOO MAY DEPEND ON HOW MORNING CONVECTION PLAYS OUT. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SOUTHWEST...BUT
THEE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. THIS PLUS THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAIN/CLOUD COVER LEADS TO NOT ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY.

KEPT SOME LOW END EVENING POPS WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS
INTO FRIDAY. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND IS LOOKING COMPLETELY DRY AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION.
ENSEMBLES SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT NOT MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY...WITH A SECONDARY AND EVEN WEAKER FRONT
FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY. INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THESE FEATURES. GENERALLY WENT WITH
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION AS THIS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE IN LINE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WITH LOWER 70S DEW POINTS...WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT AT
THE SMALLER AIRPORTS. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID DECK AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...SHOULD KEEP THE VISIBILITY FROM
DROPPING TO IFR OR WORSE SAVE PERHAPS A BRIEF TIME.

RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE OWA
CONVECTION COULD MAKE IT IN OUR WESTERN TAF SITES AFTER 10Z AND
EASTERN ONES AFTER 12Z. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AFTER 23Z WEDNESDAY AT LAF AND HUF AND 01Z THURSDAY AT IND AND BMG.
THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO ANY OTHER CONVECTION. WILL GO WITH A 2
HOUR MORNING MVFR THUNDERSTORM GROUP AND VCTS TO HANDLE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON RE-DEVELOPMENT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...SOUTHWEST AND
WEST TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK AND NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THIS EVENING...BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/CP
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...MK



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