Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 241426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
926 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TODAY BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. AFTER A
CHILLY BUT DRY DAY TOMORROW...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER OUT...THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE COLD BUT DRY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS...AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS OHIO...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS ILLINOIS. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
ILLINOIS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT WILL JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...BEST FORCING WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL
SINCE MOST MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE 50S THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY FALL
INTO THE MID 30S THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
ENTERS THE AREA. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. AS TEMPS
FALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
MODELS HAVE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH...SO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW...LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S. THE MAV CONTINUES TO LOOK A TAD TOO WARM...SO
STUCK CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE SOMEWHAT ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAKER UPPER
TROUGH BY THE END OF DAY 7.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY ADDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR REGION AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER MI9WEST
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ON TO THE
EAST COAST.  SOME MODELS INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH FRIDAY...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS INDICATE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.  THEY ALL GENERATE SOME PRECIP
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING IT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TERNED A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND AND ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIQUID.  CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT
WITH A MOS BLEND EARLY ON AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE...

ISSUED AT 923 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

1420Z UPDATE...VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING/S UPDATE.
ONLY NEEDED TO TWEAK THE WINDS AND REMOVE -SHRA AND REPLACE WITH
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS WITH WORSE CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

RADAR INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT KIND AND KBMG FOR THE 1ST HOUR BEFORE
THEY MOVE ON TO THE EAST.

MEANWHILE STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH ALONG THE INDIANA ILLINOIS BORDER.  THIS
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING. RADAR
LOOPS AND MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN MVFR
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO TONIGHT.

MORE SIGNIFICANT WILL BE STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A
LITTLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>030-
035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF/JH

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