Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 241858

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
258 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.


Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

A low pressure system will bring showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms to central Indiana Wednesday into early Thursday.
Another system could bring more rain Friday night. Otherwise dry and
seasonable conditions can be expected.


.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

High pressure will provide mostly clear skies into the overnight.
There could be some increase in high cloud late tonight with warm
advection beginning aloft.

The mostly clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to
cool into the 30s across much of the forecast area. However,
temperatures should stay just warm enough to prevent a lot of frost
formation. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some patchy frost in
sheltered areas in the northeast forecast area though. Thus feel no
need for an advisory at this time.


.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

Warm advection aloft on Tuesday will provide some clouds at times,
so partly cloudy should handle it.

Models try and generate rain across the area Tuesday night with a
warm front in the vicinity. However, feel that while some lift may
occur, the atmosphere will still be pretty dry. Will cut back
SuperBlend`s PoPs.

Better chances for rain move in Wednesday afternoon and night as the
low pressure system moves through, as better moisture is drawn up
ahead of the system. The far east will see a lingering chance for
showers Thursday morning.

There will be enough instability for some a few thunderstorms with
the system Wednesday afternoon and night.


.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Transient upper flow persists through much of the extended with
several waves lifting up and over the ridge centered across the
Rockies. This will keep much of the Great Lakes and the Ohio
Valley within a northwest flow regime through the weekend with
heights rising early next week as the ridge shifts east.

Most of the waves aloft tracking across the northern part of the
country will be far enough north to only impact the forecast area
with periodic clouds. The only exception is with the strongest
system passing through during the period...set to track across the
Great Lakes Friday night with a trailing cold front sweeping
through the region. Bulk of the forcing aloft remains well north
of the area but presence of the front and a modest low level jet
should support at least the threat for a few showers accompanying
the front. Once the front passes...high pressure will reestablish
for the weekend into early next week. Highs will remain near
normal throughout the extended.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 241800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

VFR conditions expected throughout the period.

Cool N/NE flow into the region early this afternoon as high
pressure expands out of the upper Midwest. Bulk of the lower
clouds focused to the northeast of the region...but a scattered cu
field has developed over parts of the northern half of the forecast
area in the vicinity of an 850mb thermal trough. This will move
off to the east by late day with cu gradually diminishing in

The rest of the forecast will see just passing mid and high level
clouds as the high settles across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
by Tuesday. Winds will remain northerly overnight before veering
to more of an easterly direction after daybreak Tuesday.





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