Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 060739
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
239 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND...BUT A COLD FRONT AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO WINTER CONDITIONS
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SNOW.
LATER IN THE WEEK NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO CLOSER TO
AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. PLENTY OF
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM...BUT LOWER CLOUDS EXIST
FARTHER WEST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

LIMITED FORCING AND OVERALL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IT APPEARS THAT ODDS ARE NOW
TOO LOW FOR EVEN SPRINKLES. THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY.

THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO MIDDAY /DEPENDING
ON WHETHER THE LOWER CLOUDS OUT WEST MAKE IT IN/. HOWEVER MOISTURE
DECREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD COVER
IT TODAY.

WENT NEAR OR ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH THE DRY
FORECAST AND SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT THE THICKER CLOUDS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE. WENT WITH
A BLEND OF MODEL TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WHICH IS A BIT COOLER THAN
MOS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AHEAD OF IT...BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT.
GFS/CANADIAN BRING IN RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE NAM/ECMWF
ARE DRY. WITH THE GULF CUT OFF...AT THE MOMENT FEEL THAT ODDS OF
RAIN ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY.

THE FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER SUPPORT
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LOW. THIS FORCING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT DURING THE
EVENING...WITH HIGHEST POPS EAST NEAREST THE FRONT. FORCING FROM THE
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...AND PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND IT. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL MOVE IN AS WELL. THE COLD AIR WILL SQUEEZE OUT WHAT
MOISTURE IS LEFT IN THE AREA. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALL
AREAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SOME INTENSE SQUALLS
MONDAY...WHICH DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON TRAVELERS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WHICH WILL RESULT
IN LINGERING SMALL SNOW CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN DRY BUT COLD WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. REGIONAL BLEND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS LOOK GOOD WITH COLD
LOW LEVEL THERMALS. COULD BE EVEN A BIT COLDER THAN THE BLEND
DEPENDING ON THE EXPECTED SNOW PACK AND HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS.
FINALLY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 060600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1125 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CLOUDS AT KLAF HAVE BEEN STUBBORN BUT SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND
SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 8Z. EVERYWHERE ELSE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POSSIBILITY THE OUTLYING SITES COULD SEE BRIEF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BUT THINK WITH CIRRUS OVERHEAD WOULD
PREFER TO LEAVE OUT. WITH MOS AND TIME HEIGHTS SHOWING NO CEILING
PROBLEMS AT OTHER SITES SATURDAY WILL GO WITH 5 KFT CEILING WITH
THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW
CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS IOWA AND MINNESOTA DEVELOP AS THEY MOVE
INTO AND THROUGH ILLINOIS SINCE THERE IS MVFR AND IFR IN THAT
DECK.

LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-8 KTS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP


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