Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 030428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD/JP

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