Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

976
FXUS63 KIND 191050
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
550 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

High pressure over the southeast U.S. will bring warmer and dry
weather through Saturday.  A strengthening area of low pressure will
move into the central plains this weekend and to Iowa and Wisconsin
by Monday and across the Great lakes Monday night and Tuesday.

Temperatures will become quite mild early next and then a little
cooler late Monday on after a cold front moves across Indiana.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 248 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

High pressure over the southeast U.S. was bringing clear skies to
much of the U.S. from the great lakes south to the Gulf Coast.
Temperatures will continue to become milder today and tonight as a
moderate southwest flow occurs across our region and the upper flow
becomes more zonal.

Model soundings indicate mostly clear conditions today and tonight.
However melting snow could produce patchy clouds some areas late
today into tonight.  Overall a MOS blend on temperatures seem
reasonable and only a few tweaks made.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Sunday Night/...
Issued at 248 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

Low pressure will deepen over the central plains Saturday into Sunday
and warmer air with increasing dewpoints will spread into our region
over the weekend.

Model soundings indicate increasing stratus Saturday from melting
snow and higher dewpoints with a flow pushing up from the western
Gulf towards the Ohio valley.  The SREF indicates 95 percent chance
of visibilities less than a mile over the northern two third of our
region late Saturday night into Sunday...so added patchy fog to the
grids.
Could see drizzle or sprinkles as low levels become quite moist.

Strong low pressure will move to Iowa and with a cold front pushing
east across the Mississippi river by 12Z Monday.  There will be lots
of moisture with this system and models indicate high rain chances
by late Sunday night.

Toyed with the idea of adding isolated Thunder to our western
sections late Sunday night.  However SREF indicates less than a 5
percent chance of thunder and will leave out mention for now.

Concerning temperatures...undercut MOS highs slightly with clouds
and still a relatively cool ground.   Raised low temperatures
slightly Sunday night with clouds and strong warm advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...

Issued at 231 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

A strong and occluding low pressure system over Missouri and Iowa
will sweep a shield of rain across Indiana Monday. Models still
suppress instability in our area and thunder does not seem to be
in the picture. A blended solution for rain timing is used as
models still differ a bit. The dry slot behind the deep layered
moisture may still be showery and somewhat cloudy with a lot of
mixing taking place. Model blend temperatures around 50 Monday in
clouds and rain appears reasonable.

This system through warmth and rain will melt any remaining snow
but the wrap around comma head that comes across the area Monday
night into early Tuesday may lay down another light blanket of snow.
Regardless of any new snow, Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry
with near seasonal temperatures and should easily melt any new
snow.

A return to southwest flow on the backside of high pressure
Thursday will continue the dry warmup bringing temperatures above
normal with highs in the 40s and lows not far from freezing. The
next weather system in line renews a threat for rain showers by
late week and the weekend with again a changeover to snow before
ending.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 19/12Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 550 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

VFR conditions will continue through Friday mid morning.

A dry air mass will continua with clear skies through early
afternoon and only a few high thin clouds after that.  Few to
scattered areas of Stratus possible some areas late tonight.

Marginal low level wind shear possible north sections early this
morning and all areas tonight.  Otherwise...surface winds will be
from the southwest around 10 knots.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....Tucek
AVIATION...TDUD/JH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.