Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 280703
AFDIND

ZCZC INDWRKAFD 280348
TTAA00 KIND DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL BRING MORE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
THEN CONDITIONS DRY OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL GIVE WAY TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE MIDWEEK FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATE...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT
AND SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SO...NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT FORECAST. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
STILL LOOK REASONABLE. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.
THUS WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SOME FOG AND
STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS AND KEPT
SKY COVER UP.

STAYED NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE MOS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES GIVEN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND
WAS USED.

BIG QUESTION FOR TUESDAY IS TO MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION OR NOT.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM. HOWEVER OLD
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

WHILE CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME POP UP STORMS...FEEL THAT THE
RISING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP KEEP COVERAGE BELOW THE 20
PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR MENTIONING. WILL GO DRY TUESDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM SEEMS A BIT
FAST BY BRINGING IN RAIN DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER ECMWF AND
CANADIAN BRING IN SOME RAIN BY 12Z. THUS CONTINUED TO GO DRY MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH LOW POPS NORTHWEST LATE.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AROUND...WENT HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ALL AREAS.

FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO WENT DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR.

WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS ON TUESDAY SOME AREAS WITH THE WET GROUND
AND THE POTENTIAL MORNING STRATUS. WENT WITH A BLEND MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER.
MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA.
SOME MODELS INDICATE A DRY AND VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
OUR REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND MOST MODELS BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
OUR WAY TOWARDS DAY 7.  WILL MENTION LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE SUNDAY AND MOST AREAS MONDAY WITH THIS
2ND COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A SUPER BLEND HPC MIX.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MVFR OR WORSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR FROM LATE MORNING
ON.

A STATIONARY FRONT OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA LATER TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT.
WILL TAKE OUTLYING SITES DOWN TO IFR AND LEAVE IND MVFR. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO FLUCTUATE AS OFTEN OCCURS IN SUCH SITUATIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE
RULE REST OF THE TIME.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND MAY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD/JH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.