Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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784
FXUS63 KIND 241430
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1030 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.UPDATE...

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Another hot and humid day is in store today across Central
Indiana...as the hot and humid air mass remains in place. A cold
front will sag south toward Central Indiana tonight and pass
across the states on Monday. This will bring chances fro showers
and storms late tonight and again on Monday.

Cooler High pressure is expected to arrive across the area on
Monday night and Tuesday...returning temperatures closer to
seasonal normals.

Another low pressure system is expected to arrive in the area late
in the work week bringing chance for showers and storms back to
the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 925 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

No changes to current thoughts on weather today. Temperatures and
humidity on track while winds slowly veer from SE to SW. A bit of
thin cirrus and mid cloud are helping to keep temperature rise
a bit slow for the moment. Storms in Michigan will drop ESE and
stay well away from our area. Isolated late day convection is
still possible and will be monitored.

&&

.SHORT TERM /tonight through Tuesday night/...

Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

GFS and NAM both suggest an upper short wave arriving over the
upper midwest tonight...helping a surface cold front to begin to
sag southward toward Indiana. GFS is a bit more aggressive with a
few waves ahead of the trough as should be expected ahead of the
cold front in the very warm and moist air mass. Forecast soundings
show plenty of CAPE available...and with the cold front
approaching...mainly late...this extra triggering should be able
to generate storms. Will Trend pops higher than
mavmos...particularly across the northwest of the forecast area
where front arrives first. Again will trend lows at or above
mavmos...particularly southeast...as the the cold front
approaches.

FROPA looks to occur near 12z...and forecast soundings hint
toward saturation. Thus will continue to keep pop at or above
mavmos as the forcing passing during the morning hours on Monday.
Conditions should trend toward dry as the day progress as high
pressure builds across the area and forecast soundings show
drying through the column. With morning clouds and very weak cold
air advection...will trend highs on monday cooler than mavmos.

Subsidence and drying with the column is seen within forecast
soundings on Monday night through Tuesday night. This will lead to
partly cloudy skis through this period...along with near normal
temps. Will stick to a blend on temps here.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

The long term pattern is characterized by a broad upper ridge over
the southern U.S. with a large upper low over northern Quebec
suppressing the ridge over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This
will set up a situation where upper shortwaves move through the
main flow prompting thunderstorm chances as they interact with a
front that will stall out and meander across the area. Timing
specific waves is a futile effort given model variability so will
use the superblend guidance without deviation, which broadbrushes
chances for thunderstorms throughout the long term. Temperatures
should return to near normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 241500z IND TAD Update/...

Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Changed winds to 130 degrees as outflow boundary had moved well
south with its effects washed out. Also, minor tweak to VFR deck.

Previous discussion follows...

Issued at 636 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

MVFR and lower fog is possible at the outlying sites through
around 13-14z but sites should be VFR after that and stay that way
through the day with just scattered to broken diurnal cu this
afternoon. Tonight though expect to see some thunderstorms form
ahead of the cold front with an upper wave moving through. Brought
in VCTS at KLAF after 0z and the other sites thereafter and
carried it through the remainder of the TAF period with
uncertainty on both arrival timing and exit timing.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/MK



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