000
FXUS63 KIND 191628
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1228 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...KEEPING DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW STORMY DAYS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND ALLOWS MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR STORMS ACROSS INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS OF FOG LINGERING OVER SOME OF THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES AT THIS
TIME...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THESE AREAS OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER LOW TODAY...BUT
NEAR TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CAPPED OFF AS THE DAY GOES BY. AS A RESULT...THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A
BIT OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP...BUT THINK CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN LOW. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE POP OVER THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON CLOSEST TO REMNANT UPPER LOW.

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SUGGEST HIGHS TODAY MAY A LITTLE
WARM...HOWEVER CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
WHAT WAS EXPECTED BY THIS TIME...SO WILL LEAVE THE HIGHS ALONE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PATCHY FOG WILL HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM WITH A MOIST AIRMASS AND
SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR FOG WILL BE IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AND
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH AREAS OF FOG WHERE VISIBILITIES
ARE INDICATING LESS THAN A MILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES.

MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME
AS NOT NOT VERY CONFIDENT SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT
THIS FAR WEST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE TODAY WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID
80S. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

STARTING TONIGHT LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES AS GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE (ESPECIALLY
FOR MONDAY). A DRY FORECAST WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD INDIANA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN ALREADY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS COMBINED WITH
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA...AND AN UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA EJECTING S/WV TOWARDS THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE
MANY SOURCES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. INDICES FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT INDICATE THAT SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CONTINUE TO EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
COMING WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EXTREMELY SLOWLY OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. ON THIS...LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
INITIALIZATION HANDLED WELL.

VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...GFS KEEPS A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...AND EURO DOES TO AN EXTENT AS
WELL...BUT EURO IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ABOUT DEVELOPING PRECIP AND
MOVING IT INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. HAVE A HARD TIME
BUYING THIS WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL IN THE AREA AND MUCH OF THE
PRECIP DEVELOPING DIRECTLY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WILL REMOVE
POPS FROM LATE IN THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
BEYOND FRIDAY.

TEMPS WERE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AND ONLY REQUIRED MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1219 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SOME MVFR OR
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO DIURNAL FOG. A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED QUICKLY BY 14Z MONDAY AS HEATING AND
MIXING RESUMES.

A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON AND CU RULE SUGGESTS SCT CU. WITH
CCLS NEAR 3500 FT...ANY BRIEF CIGS WILL BE VFR.

AFTER HEATING IS LOST...EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE AREA ALONG WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AIRMASS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD SOME PERSISTENCE TYPE FOG OVERNIGHT. AGAIN, ONCE
HEATING RESUMES ON MONDAY MORNING...DIURNAL FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...JP

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