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000
FXUS63 KIND 230433
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1232 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SHOULD KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY BUT THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL DRY THINGS OUT INTO THE WEEKEND.
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST BREAKING DOWN AND A POSSIBLE PATTERN TRANSITION SETTING UP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN REBOUND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND WINDS HAVE COME
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 12 MPH. THE SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT A FEW LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FIRST LINE IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM MADISON COUNTY...DOWN
TO BARTHOLOMEW COUNTY. FURTHER BACK...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. ANY
LINGERING THUNDER SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SO WILL GENERALLY USE A CONSENSUS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY
THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A VORT MAX WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THIS HAPPENS MORE IN THE MORNING IN
THE GFS AND A BIT LATER IN THE NAM. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING
THROUGH AS WELL...EXPECT TO SEE SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY WORKING INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE LATE MORNING TO
AFTERNOON SO ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THERE. BY EVENING THE AXIS
WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN
END.  DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. ONE CAVEAT
TO THIS IS THAT THE NAM IS SHOWING WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN MCS DEVELOPING
OVER MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND RIDING THE RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE GFS DOESN/T SHOW A SIMILAR FEATURE AND
THINK PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH A FEATURE THIS FAR OUT IS PRETTY SLIM.

FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY THOUGHT A MOS CONSENSUS SHOULD WORK OUT
FINE...WITH COLD ADVECTION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THEN RELATIVELY STABLE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FROM FRIDAY ON. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN
THE 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GOOD CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND MOS DERIVED FROM THEM. IN
PARTICULAR...ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE MEN PRODUCT IS QUITE LOW. NO
REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES IN CENTRAL REGION INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 230600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

VFR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THEN TAFS BECOMING MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN VFR LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WEATHER DEPICTION
SHOWS AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOME OF
THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE THE RULE.

AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATES ON TO THE SOUTHEAST. MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING AND RAPID
CLEARING POSSIBLE TOWARDS END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN SOME AREAS.

WINDS WILL BE WEST 8 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME
NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JEH

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