National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KIND 171341
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
941 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM ARKANSAS HAS DEVELOPED SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA THATS MOVING NORTH TOWARD OUR
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. ALL MODELS IN A GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
LIFTING THE UPPER LOW INTO INDIANA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE IT ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM EXITS WHILE LARGE
TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING WARMER AIR FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS OF STORMY WEATHER MONDAY INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST...JUST SOUTH
OF THE LAFAYETTE AND MUNCIE AREAS. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE
AND LOWER 60S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REVEAL CONDITIONS IDEAL FOR
CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. RAPID REFRESH INDICATES THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
TRENDED POPS TOWARD 0 FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS RADAR TRENDS SHOW
NOTHING FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS AGAIN HAVE A
GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE UPPER
LOW OVER ARKANSAS LIFTS INTO INDIANA. THIS DIFFERENCE ALSO TIES TO
HOW FAR NORTH LIKELY RAIN AREAS WILL BE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL
USE A BLEND OF MODELS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY ON THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING AS UPPER LOW REACHES ITS FARTHEST PUSH NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST AND RIDGING DEVELOPS IN
ITS WAKE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH OR END IN WESTERN INDIANA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. EASTERN COUNTIES THREAT FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE REGARDING RAIN. MODELS INCREASINGLY FAVOR DRY WEATHER
AS UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST BUT WET GROUND AND WARMER TEMPS
WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE SUNDAY COULD STILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS. ANOTHER MODEL RUN WITH SAME TREND COULD ALLOW REMOVAL OF
RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...ONGOING FORECAST NUMBERS WERE PRETTY GOOD WITH
MINS IN 62 TO 65 RANGE INTO MONDAY MORNING. MAXS SATURDAY WILL BE
CLOSE TO 80...WARMER THAN TODAY WITH A TAD MORE SUN THEN IN THE
80S SUNDAY AS EVEN MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING THICKNESSES.
INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG TROUGH SHOULD KEEP
SUNDAY NIGHT MINS IN MID OR EVEN UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS APPEAR SET TO CONTINUE INTO THE COMING WEEK.
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THEN VERY SLOWLY MAKE PROGRESS TO THE EAST DURING THE
WEEK. CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BUT BOUNDARIES WILL AT TIMES BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE
AREA AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK AT BEST. THUS...WHILE HAVE
MAINTAINED POPS IN ALL PERIODS BUT THE VERY END WHEN A SURFACE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE AREA...HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS
SLIGHTLY MOST PERIODS...AS LACK OF SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WHEN IT APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

TEMPS FROM INITIALIZATION APPEARED REASONABLE THROUGHOUT WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS. WARMTH SHOULD PEAK EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL
COOLDOWN IN THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR LATER EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS HAS LED
TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE OUTLYING SITES THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES
HAVE OCCASIONALLY DIPPED INTO IFR BUT HAVE LARGELY REMAINED MVFR.
THIS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AND BECOME ALL
VFR BY MID MORNING.

AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND A FEW BOUNDARIES LINGER IN THE
AREA...SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WILL BE
TOO UNCERTAIN AND TRANSIENT TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND THE WEAKENING
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THUS...EXPECTING RESTRICTIONS TO
REDEVELOP TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONFINE
TO LOW END MVFR OWING TO UNCERTAINTY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS