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000
FXUS63 KIWX 172241
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
641 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry tonight and cooler.

- Showers and thunderstorms return Thursday evening, ending
  before sunrise Friday.

- Dry but cool this weekend with the opportunity for morning
  frost.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The severe weather risk has ended as thunderstorms along the cold
front have moved east.

Temperatures have fallen into the low 60s and will remain there
through the remainder of the day. Because wind is from the
southwest or west, temperatures haven`t crashed like a
traditional cold front. Gusty wind subsides after sunset as the
surface low exits the Great Lakes. Seasonably cooler tonight
with lows in the upper 40s before warm air advection returns
Thursday afternoon. This, as a low develops over Missouri and
slides east through the day. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms begins near sunset Thursday and ends by daybreak
Friday. Locally, a marginal risk for severe storms is noted
along our border with Indianapolis. Aloft, we`ll be on the nose
the 850mb jet and the warm front will linger in this area as
well. Instability is forecast to be poor while bulk shear will
be modest at around 30 knots. Therefore, not overly impressed
but do confirm the marginal risk there.

Dry and cool this weekend, but not too horrible weather-wise. Cold
mornings, however, as frost will be a concern both Saturday night
and Sunday night. Confidence is medium-high in frost, with lows near
34 and light wind. This cool trough aloft moves east by Monday,
allowing temperatures to warm back toward 60 degrees. A
disturbance moves through the upper-Midwest Tuesday providing
our next rain chance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

An area of MVFR ceilings continue to track east through
Illinois, and I do still expect them to make an appearance at
KSBN. Confidence is waning, however, as the coverage area of
these ceilings is on the decline. Wind thus far has been very
strong behind the cold front. However, daytime mixing will be on
the decline and we will continue to be removed from the low
pressure gradient through time. Late in the TAF period, wind
becomes light and variable ahead of the next low pressure
system. This low brings the chance of rain to KSBN right at, or
just outside, the end of the TAF period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Brown