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000
FXUS64 KJAN 160159 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
859 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
1015MB HIGH PRESSURE AND H5 UPPER RIDGE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO THE
E/NE...LEADING TO SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING LIFT FROM
S/WV IN CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTH OVERNIGHT AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRATUS OVERNIGHT. SREF PROBS
ARE INDICATING LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. ONLY MODIFIED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDING TO CURRENT
TRENDS. ALSO SLIGHTLY MODIFIED SKY COVER GRIDS. REST OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
BUT MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WL BE PSBL 09-13Z AT HBG/PIB/MEI. LGT
SLY WINDS WL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 5-7KTS SUNDAY.  /BK/22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE DEVELOPING. THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS SRN LA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
INCREASING DEWPOINTS FOR SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
ADDITIONAL EFFECTS OF AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO RETURN
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER TROUGHING...WITH OCCASIONAL DEEPENING AS UPPER
WAVES INTERMITTENTLY DROP IN FROM THE NW...WILL PERSIST WELL INTO
THE WEEK. SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER
NRN ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TRACK OF WAVES PASSING TO OUR
NORTH...INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SURFACE BOUNDARY PIVOTS THIS
WAY FROM THE NW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...FORECAST CLOSE TO 2 INCHES FOR SOME LOCATIONS...
INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS IN ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE SHORT TERM. THE NATURE OF CONVECTION
WILL REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIP
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT READINGS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER MET MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN ZONES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS RATHER INTERESTING AS GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A SOMEWHAT STORMY PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GETS
PUSHED SOUTH AND PERTURBED FLOW SETS UP AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
GENERALLY FOR THE TUE-FRI PERIOD. INDICATIONS ARE FOR RIDGING TO
BUILD BACK BY POSSIBLY FRI-SAT WHICH WOULD LOWER PRECIP CHANCES.

FOR THE TUE-THU PERIOD...BOTH THE GFS/EURO INDICATE SEVERAL S/WV`S
NEAR OR TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
PUSHED SOUTHWARD. IN SUCH A PATTERN...CONFIDENCE IN DAY-TO-DAY
SPECIFICS IS NOT REALLY HIGH...BUT THIS PATTERN OFFERS BETTER THAN
AVG CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/STORMS WILL BE AROUND NEAR EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL JUNE TYPE TEMPS (LOWS NEAR 70/HIGHS NEAR 90)
AND ABOVE AVG RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. FOR THE MOST
PART...THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL BE OF THE TYPICAL SUMMER VARIETY.
HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME OF THE DAYS WILL OFFER STRONGER
MID LEVEL FLOW (H5 20KTS) AND SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SOME MIX OF STRONG/SVR STORMS. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME TO KNOW WHICH DAY WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE THAN OTHERS TO SUPPORT SUCH A RISK. FOR NOW...WILL JUST
ADVERTISE THIS POTENTIAL VIA THE AFD.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND...MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP AGAIN. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL
AND SUPPORT WARMER TEMPS.

AS FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS(TEMPS/POPS)...GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE NOT TOO
BAD...BUT DID SEEM A TAD WARM AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE WEEK.
ADJUSTMENTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD WERE MADE. FOR POPS...THE GFS WAS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH A FEATURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST TUE...AS A
RESULT...IT PUSHED A SFC FRONT INTO THE CWA FOR WED/THU RESULTING IN
LOW POPS AND COOLER LOW TEMPS. A SOLUTION MORE LIKE THE EURO WAS
FOLLOWED...POPS INCREASED ALONG WITH LOWS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  93  72  93 /  10  13  14  23
MERIDIAN      67  91  70  94 /   8  13  13  37
VICKSBURG     71  93  70  94 /  10  12  14  17
HATTIESBURG   70  90  73  94 /   6  20  15  33
NATCHEZ       73  92  71  92 /   9  23   9  15
GREENVILLE    72  93  73  92 /   9  19  26  29
GREENWOOD     70  93  72  91 /   9  21  29  31

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/22/BK/CME