867
FXUS64 KJAN 010545 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1245 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Rest of Tonight...Weak ridging aloft and surface high pressure will
maintain quiet conditions across the forecast area tonight.  While
some patchy fog and low stratus will be possible across the area
toward day break Wednesday, especially south of the Interstate 20
corridor, skies will remain mostly clear overnight.  Lows will be
slightly warmer tonight, compared to last night, as they range from
the upper 50s to middle 60s.

The ongoing forecast is in good shape.  Other than some minor
adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast based on current
trends, no major changes will be made on this evening`s forecast
update. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Through Wednesday: Dry conditions are expected to continue
through Wednesday as shortwave upper ridging and a surface high
pressure axis extend along the East Coast. Though much of the low
level moisture that resulted in fog this morning is expected to
have eroded today, there may still be enough for patchy fog in
some areas late tonight into tomorrow morning. Guidance has
continued to trend away from the possibility of a convective
complex over the Plains moving into our area on tomorrow, so rain
chances have now been removed from the forecast. Considerable sun
is expected with above average temps in the offing.

Thursday through next Tuesday: As broad upper troughing expands
eastward toward our region through the end of the week, increasing
deep layer moisture and a series of upper shortwaves will result
in a more active pattern with periodic chances for rain. The first
such disturbance will approach Thursday, with a somewhat better
chance for convection originating to our west to move into the
area before likely weakening as it encounters stronger ridging
further eastward. A similar situation may play out Thursday night
into Friday. Heading into this weekend, the surface ridge axis
will shift more southward, with the higher rain chances becoming
oriented over the northern half of the area and drier conditions
as you get closer to the Gulf Coast. Rain development may also
become more diurnal in nature, with higher rain chances in the
afternoons. The surface ridge is expected to build early next
week, further limiting higher rain chances to north of the area
with only isolated PoPs lingering across north MS and AR by Monday
and Tuesday. Outside of disruption from clouds and rain,
temperatures will continue a trend toward summerlike.

Sufficient instability and deep shear may coincide at times for
thunderstorms late this week into early next week to be strong to
severe, but at this time there is not a specific favored time
period for organized severe weather. Any potential will be largely
driven by mesoscale features that are still too far out in time
to resolve. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions wl prevail until 10Z. After 10Z MVFR vsby wl be
psbl at most TAF sites but IFR/LIFR wl also be psbl in the se
11-13Z. After 13Z conditions wl improve to VFR and VFR conditions
wl prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  87  67  80 /   0  10  30  60
Meridian      61  89  65  83 /   0   0  20  40
Vicksburg     65  84  67  80 /   0  30  40  80
Hattiesburg   64  87  67  85 /   0   0  10  30
Natchez       65  83  66  79 /   0  30  30  70
Greenville    66  84  68  79 /   0  30  60  80
Greenwood     66  87  67  80 /   0  20  50  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/DL/22