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000
FXUS64 KJAN 131207
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
707 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Today and Tonight:

Dry weather will continue across the forecast area today as we
remain squarely beneath a surface high pressure centered over the
Gulf Coast today. Temperatures this afternoon should warm into the
lower 80s (about 5 degrees above normal) at most locations as
rising mid-level heights with a strengthening ridge and abundant
sunshine affect the area. /NF/

Sunday through Friday night:

The forecast for the long term looks to remain relatively quiet
heading into the new work week with no major adjustments made to the
overall forecast. Early morning global guidance continue to
highlight a longwave ridge will start to slowly migrate eastward
across the central CONUS as a sfc high slowly shifts east across the
Lower Mississippi Valley. This will help keep weather conditions
quiet for our forecast area bringing dry conditions and warming
temperatures through Monday. Beginning on Tuesday, the mean ridge
axis will start to shift to the east. At the same time, a 990mb low
pressure system will begin to push east across the central CONUS.
The combination of the shifting ridge axis and the eastward
propagating sfc low will allow for a cold front to move into the
northern portions of our forecast area. Because of this, southerly
flow aloft will push gulf moisture and instability towards our area.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible primarily across
northern parts of our CWA Tuesday into Wednesday.

A much stronger cold front will move into the area on Thursday as
the sfc low shifts northward towards the Great Lakes. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will be much higher this time across much of
central MS. Early morning ensembles have started to highlight
sufficient moisture in place along with increasing deep layer shear,
increasing mid-level lapse rates, the potential for increasing CAPE
values, and PWATs near 1.50 in ahead of the cold front, the
potential for severe storms will be possible. Confidence remains low
at this time as this event is still several days out and the
forecast could change in the coming days. Nevertheless, we will
continue to monitor the potential for severe weather as the time
frame gets close and forecast confidence increases. Heading into
Friday, storm chances will begin to decrease as the aforementioned
cold front moves out of the area. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through
the period, with winds generally less than 10 kts from the SSW.
Some low-level wind shear will be a concern at KGLH after 06Z
Sunday. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       82  53  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      83  51  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     81  54  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   82  51  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       82  54  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    80  57  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     80  56  82  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/CR