619
FXUS62 KJAX 030523
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
123 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Enhanced deep moisture, with PWATS near 1.4 inches, located over
the western zones of the forecast area and good convergence combined
with MLCAPE of about 1000 J/kg continue to produce scattered, generally
weak convection. Heavy rain and gusty winds are the main impacts.
Activity is generally centered near or west of I-75 corridor as of
8 pm. Looks like activity should mostly be dissipated by midnight.
Continued to advertise patchy to areas of fog tonight but may
trend toward more coverage and lower visibility in the fog based
on the guidance that is currently available. Will update our
briefing to show this with the best chances of fog over the
eastern half of the forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Still anticipating development of a few showers, isolated t-storms,
with west-coast sea breeze in NW FL peninsula late this afternoon...
otherwise clear to partly cloudy skies expected. Continued mention
of patchy fog toward dawn. Current low temperature forecast
Tonight looks good...with mid 60s inland and around 70 coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Low level high pressure ridging will remain stubborn for Friday,
which will overall tend to limit convective coverage despite a
consistent sea breeze influence and adequate layer moisture.
Though still will expect isolated to widely scattered showers and
a few t`storms Friday, mainly around the I-95 corridor similar to
today. Convection should wean after sunset, with the potential for
some overnight and morning fog once again into Saturday Morning
given the pattern in place. Saturday, a rather slow moving mid
level shortwave will slide across the general area in the zonal
flow aloft, which will result in higher chances of daytime
convection compared to Friday. Expecting the highest coverage to
be over more inland southeast GA and the Suwannee River area,
dropping off further east and southeast as the sea breeze boundary
penetrates further inland. Not expecting a severe threat given the
flow regime aloft, though a few strong storms cannot be ruled out
with MLCAPE near or slightly above 1000 J/kg.

Temperatures will be very warm once again Friday, especially
inland with the onshore flow quickly affecting areas approaching
the coast. Upper 80s to around 90 inland, with low to mid 80s
approaching the coast east of I-95. With the higher coverage of
showers and t`storms Saturday, highs will be overall lower - in
the mid to upper 80s inland and low 80s at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Generally onshore flow with surface high pressure sitting well
offshore in the Atlantic should continue overall diurnal
convection chances for the end of the weekend, and likely into the
start of next week. Guidance also continues to move a weak
impulse across the general area around Monday to Tuesday, though
confidence is still lower than usual as the placement and
magnitude of the shortwave remains in question. High pressure
ridging builds further westward into the Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of next week as a high pressure ridge also builds aloft.
Therefore, an overall increasingly dry and warmer trend should
coincide for this period, possibly approaching record highs by
Wednesday and/or Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Patchy fog is expected to develop toward 08/09z for terminals
along the I-95 corridor. Given the nature of the development, an
intermittent mix of MVFR to IFR visibility restrictions remains a
possibility at all TAF sites. Improvements to VFR will follow
shortly after sunrise with predominant easterly wind around 5-10
knots. The Atlantic sea breeze will accelerate easterly winds tow
7- 12 knots during the afternoon but showers and t`storms
development appears unlikely given the dry air aloft. There will
be an outside chance of an isolated shower at KGNV toward sunset
but chances are less than 20% with better chances west of the I-75
corridor.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Stationary high pressure centered well north of the waters will
maintain a southeast flow over the waters through the upcoming
weekend. Afternoon and evening wind surges are expected today and
Friday due to the sea breeze. The high moves eastward Monday. This
along with the approach of a weak cold front will yield a more
southerly flow over the waters Monday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  67  85  65 /  20  30  60  30
SSI  82  69  81  69 /   0  10  30  20
JAX  87  66  85  66 /   0  10  30  20
SGJ  84  66  84  67 /   0   0  30  20
GNV  90  64  87  64 /  10  10  50  20
OCF  91  66  89  66 /  10   0  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$