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000
FXUS64 KLIX 200518
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1218 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A fairly broad upper level trough is currently moving east through
the Great Lakes. The southern side of this feature is relatively
flat at this time which is why the associated cold front is
struggling to make southward progression. Model soundings show low
dewpoint depressions around 500mb and near the surface. That points
to continued high level clouds and possibly patchy fog over SELA and
southern MS. So should expect another anomalously warm night.
Saturday will be similar to today as the trough continues east of
the Great Lakes with the base of the trough still quite flat without
much southward movement. The cold front will be basically crawling
south into the CWA Saturday. Post frontal showers with maybe a storm
or 2 will drift south into the northern half of the local area.
Highs will be limited by slightly cooler air north of the boundary
and clouds to the south of it. So a bit more challenging and higher
probability of being too cool or warm for forecast highs in the
CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Models show a shortwave on the backside of the northern trough
moving on a much farther south trajectory, passing through the mid
to lower Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon. This is what`ll be
needed to finally drive a cold front completely through the CWA on
Sunday morning. Ample moisture in place with lift from the front
will be a good setup for increasing showers. Model soundings today
compared to previous days show much less instability anywhere
through the column. Thus, thinking it`ll be fairly tough for much
thunder to develop and therefore now only have isolated
thunderstorms in the zone forecasts. Overall QPF shouldn`t be
impactful generally speaking with areal amounts under an inch.
Coverage forecast of 80% could still be too low.

This cold front won`t be particularly strong being that a shortwave
it driving it, so only looking at a day of below normal temps with
moderating conditions quickly returning as well as above normal
temps Tuesday onward. Precip forecast next week continues to be on
the lower end of confidence as models not doing a great job of
resolving weaker troughs that may pass through the midsection of the
country. So will just be going with deterministic NBM POPs which with
the latest forecast package is on the drier side.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Have refreshed TAFs to back off onset of IFR CIGs at terminals
with impacts most likely to be intermittent between 1000-1400 UTC.
Still can expect some drops to VIS to MVFR as well around sunrise. VCSH
adjusted and -RA introduced closer to the end of the TAF period
with low CIGs returning after 00 UTC. Winds will remain light and
somewhat variable (initially south prevailing) as the front
approaches the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A surface high pressure is centered in the western Atlantic and
extending across the Gulf of Mexico. The western periphery of this
ridge is being broken down by approaching surface trough to the north
of the area. That`ll result in a weakening of onshore flow with most
of the coastal waters becoming light and variable tonight. Current
global model runs indicate that a cold front will move through the
coast waters Sunday morning. Cold air advection won`t be
particularly strong with this boundary and thus likely only looking
at about 12 to 18 hours of Exercise Caution to low-end Small Craft
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  52  60  43  70 /  70  70   0   0
BTR  60  66  48  75 /  60  60   0   0
ASD  59  68  47  74 /  50  80   0   0
MSY  64  68  55  72 /  50  80   0   0
GPT  60  68  49  74 /  30  80   0   0
PQL  60  70  47  75 /  20  70  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...ME