482
FXUS66 KLOX 101652
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
952 AM PDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...10/943 AM.

A quiet weather pattern is expected through early next week with
near normal temperatures and no rain except possibly some light
showers over the mountains this afternoon. Increasing night and
morning low clouds are expected across coast and valleys as
onshore flow increases. Mostly minor day to day changes in
temperatures are expected through Sunday, then cooling possible
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...10/951 AM.

***UPDATE***

No significant changes this morning. Stratus continues to fill
into more areas but still is struggling north of Pt Conception.
Clouds are solid about 15 miles west of the coastline but patchier
closer to the coast. Hi Res models continue to indicate high
chances for cloud coverage expanding there tonight through the
weekend.

Will keep an eye on possible cumulus development over the
mountains this afternoon as an upper low is sneaking into eastern
California near Death Valley. Instability is decent but it`s
sorely lacking moisture. Like the idea of adding a small chance of
light showers over the eastern San Gabriels and smaller chances to
the mountains to the west. Possibly a similar scenario Saturday.

***From Previous Discussion***

The cyclonic flow from the low will combine good differential
heating to the mtns and will destabilize the atmosphere over the
mtns. The flow into the mtns, however, will be from the NE and
will be very dry (PWATs ~.2") and this will greatly limit the
convective threat. Still a non zero but less than 10 percent chc
of convection tomorrow but see the far more likely scenario being
some afternoon CU development.

The low clouds will make it to the Central Coast tonight as well
as the rest of the csts/vlys south of Pt Conception. Saturday
will be similar today with similar clearing times and
temperatures.

A little ridge slides into the area on Sunday. The ensembles show
that this will reduce the low cloud coverage in the morning but
with the onshore flow still increasing this forecast may turn out
to be a little optimistic. Rising hgts will lead to rising temps
and most areas will end up 1 to 3 degrees warmer compared to
Saturday. While the coasts and vlys will have near normal temps
the mtns and the interior will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...10/1234 AM.

A weak upper low will move over the area from the west during the
xtnd period. It will usher in a prolonged period of May Grey. At
the sfc there will be strong (7-9 mb) onshore flow to the east and
moderate onshore flow (5-6 mb) to the north. The lowering hgts
and cyclonic turning will combine with onshore flow to bring
extensive night through morning low clouds and fog to the csts and
most of the vlys. The strong onshore flow will result in slower
clearing and may bring no clearing to a few beaches. The cyclonic
turning aloft may also provide just enough lift to create some
morning drizzle esp along the foothills.

The strong onshore push to the east will result in breezy
conditionsacross the mtns and interior with low end advisory
level gusts possible in the afternoon.

Max temps will cool both Mon and Tue and then change little on Wed
and Thu. Max temps will be 2 to 4 degrees blo normal across the
csts/vlys but will be 3 to 6 degrees above normal across the mtns
and the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1004Z.

At 0800Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2100 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3200 feet with a max temperature of 19 C.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 12Z TAF package. Timing of
dissipation of CIGs this morning for coastal/valley sites could be
+/- 2 hours of current forecast. For tonight, high confidence in
return of CIG/VSBY restrictions for sites south of Point
Conception and moderate confidence for KSMX. However, only
moderate confidence in timing of return.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of dissipation of
MVFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current 20Z forecast. For
tonight, high confidence in return of MVFR CIGS, but only moderate
confidence in timing (could be +/- 2 hours of current 02Z
forecast). No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of dissipation of
MVFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current 17Z forecast. For
tonight, high confidence in return of MVFR CIGS, but only moderate
confidence in timing (could be +/- 2 hours of current 06Z
forecast).

&&

.MARINE...10/304 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Saturday night, high confidence in winds
and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For
Sunday through Tuesday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level
winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast as winds and seas are expected to remain below
SCA levels through Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, winds and
seas will remain below SCA levels for most areas. The only
exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel
where there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds Sunday night and
Monday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox