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000
FXUS64 KLUB 251930
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

2:00 PM satellite imagery shows cloud cover over the eastern half of
the forecast area except for most of the South Plains and the far
southwest Texas Panhandle where clearing skies has occurred.
Right now, the dryline is sitting just east of the Texas-New
Mexico border but will begin to move east as the surface low in
southeast Colorado deepens and begins to move northeast. This will
help push the dryline closer to the Caprock Escarpment later this
afternoon as well as sharpen the moisture gradient and enhance
low-level convergence.

Current thinking is that there will be two main windows for
strong to severe thunderstorms:

1. This afternoon, but chances of storm initiation continue to
diminish with thick cloud cover struggling to clear. Some CAMs
have been hinting at a few isolated thunderstorms developing in
the Rolling Plains this afternoon but these chances continue to
decrease with high-res guidance backing off on initiation due to a
strong capping inversion. Visible satellite has started to show
some cumulus cloud development along the I-27 corridor where the
persistent mid level cloud cover has begun to clear. It`s possible
with the dryline still sitting out near US Highway-385 oriented
north to south and temperatures climbing into the 80s (87 degrees
in Denver City), we could see some updrafts try and form despite
the main energy and lift associated with the upper level trough
still a bit farther to our west than we would like to see for
thunderstorm development. Again, chances of storm development are
very low this afternoon but not out of the question.

2. Late tonight after 10 PM, chances of thunderstorms increase
significantly with model guidance consistently showing storms
initiating just to the east of the I-27 corridor as a southerly low-
level jet increases to around 40 knots. Initial storm development
could pose a brief large hail threat but almost all model guidance
has these storms congealing into a QLCS and quickly moving northeast
across the Rolling Plains and the southeast Texas Panhandle. With
this linear storm mode, strong winds of 70 to 80 mph may be
possible, especially with fast storm motion and strong low-level
wind fields mixing higher momentum down to the surface. As the low-
level jet ramps up, an embedded tornado or two in the line of storms
is possible. This complex of storms should clear out of the
forecast area by around 3 AM CDT. Tomorrow will be warm with highs
in the 80s and breezy southwest surface winds as the surface
pressure gradient increases from the surface low to our north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The dryline makes a welcome return Friday night over much of the
Rolling Plains as moist southerlies amplify ahead of our next
vigorous upper low. Toward daybreak Saturday, models agree in
a subtle, lead shortwave trough around 700 mb ejecting from the
western Permian Basin and across the Red River Valley by late
morning. This wave should spur a round of elevated convection off
the Caprock with some severe hail not out of the question given
sizable ECAPE. Although the NAM is much faster and farther east
with both this lead impulse and the dryline, will stick with the
global models and their ensembles for better continuity at this
time. On the heels of this impulse, subsidence overspreads the
dryline around noon and this may keep the dryline quiet for much
of the afternoon as it hangs up near or just beyond our eastern
column of counties. Farther upstream, southwest flow will amplify
as the upper low curls across northern NM and into eastern CO by
the evening. One item of concern is a recent downturn in post-
dryline winds from the MOS and deterministic models given weaker
lows from the surface to 700 mb in southeastern CO. The NBM`s
higher winds (30+ mph) on the Caprock were left intact for now
given the tendency for deeper mixing and stronger winds in these
otherwise dynamic regimes, but this may need downward revision in
later forecasts.

Saturday night features a Pacific front sweeping the dryline east
ahead of weaker westerly winds for Sunday under weakly cyclonic
westerly flow. This flow trends weaker and more zonal by Monday
ahead of a semi-dirty ridge forecast to reach our area by late
Tuesday. Rich gulf moisture is progged to return area wide by
Tuesday night and Wednesday with PWATs AOA 1 inch east of a dryline
setting up across eastern NM. Add to this a subtropical jet with an
embedded disturbance by Wednesday and 40-50% PoPs look credible
given good support from global models. No meaningful cold fronts
through the middle of next week will keep temps above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Thunderstorms are expected to develop around 02-04z just to the
east of KLBB and KPVW so TS mention has been excluded due to
initially isolated storms but lightning and heavy thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of KLBB and KPVW tonight. VFR
conditions are expected at KLBB and KPVW unless a thunderstorm
moves over the TAF site (low chance). Confidence is much higher
that these storms will evolve into a line and move through the
KCDS terminal between 05-07z, give or take an hour depending on
how quickly the storms can organize. The thunderstorms are
expected to be strong to severe with powerful and erratic winds
as the main threat and possibly large hail. These storms will
quickly move off to the east and VFR conditions are expected to
return at KCDS. LLWS is possible tonight at all three TAF sites
but breezy surface winds may lessen the threat for LLWS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Critical fire weather conditions will expand across the rest of the
South Plains and far southwest Texas this afternoon where a Red Flag
Warning is in effect until 10 PM. The risk for rapid wildfire
growth appears low due to ERC percentile values in the 50 to 65
percent range. Fire weather concerns will continue tomorrow due to
dry and breezy conditions, but similar to today, ERC values should
keep the threat of widespread fire weather threat low.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021-022-027-
028-033-034-039.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...17